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History Suggests Caleb Williams Is Set for a Big Year 3 Leap in Chicago

History says Year 3 quarterbacks usually improve, and that could be huge for Caleb Williams as the Bears hope Ben Johnson's offense unlocks more accuracy.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams does warmup throws at last year's Bears training camp.
Caleb Williams does warmup throws at last year's Bears training camp. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The suggestion Bears QB Caleb Williams should improve his sub-par 58.1% rate of completions in his third season has merit, at least based on the history of the NFL’s top passers last season.

Williams’ familiarity with the NFL and with Ben Johnson's offense for a second straight season logically means improvement, barring some type of catastrophic setback, such as an injury.

They’re about to take the field this week and operate the offense against defensive players for the first time during OTAs and find out where they might be with Williams, but also with his receivers. Much has changed there, and losing DJ Moore could be a hit to completion percentage if not properly handled.

After all, while Williams’ completion percentages over the past two years have been 62.1% and 58.1%, Moore’s percentage of catches per target were 70% and 58.8%. Both years Williams was ahead of the game throwing to Moore. Now the younger receivers will need to find ways to help improve the percentage.

Offensive coordinator Press Taylor thinks knowing the plays when they are run against “air,” or without defenders, has been a great improvement over this time last year. The action ramps up in OTAs with phase 3 this week.

Ahead of the game, but how much?

“Now, I just think there's a little bit more confidence from everybody in what we're doing and what certain things mean,” Taylor said. “And you start to see again; their skill sets start to flourish a little bit more.

“So hopefully the goal is that we hit the ground running a little bit more, where last year we were trying to get everybody up to speed.”

What an improvement in Year 3 completion percentage could mean for Williams and the Bears isn’t entirely clear, as so many other factors can enter into the picture to limit the effect. Their defense might not improve and their takeaways could drop. Or the running game might falter.

Worse yet, their offensive line could take a step back, and this actually appears likely. It’s probably expecting too much to get center play from Garrett Bradbury and/or rookie Logan Jones than they had from Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman last year.

Their left tackle play was not greatly improved last year based on Pro Football Focus grading, but Ozzy Trapilo did seem to gain momentum and move forward in the final five regular-season games. His loss due to a patellar tendon injury for at least the early part of the season would not necessarily damage them if Braxton Jones could regain the form he had prior to his 2024 ankle injury.

Regardless, some specific trends for quarterbacks exist when they are in Year 3 like Williams will be, and being in Year 2 with the offense should add to this.

Based on the top 15 starting passers last season who already experienced a third year as starter, it’s entirely clear Williams’ should be expected to improve his completion percentage.

The top 15 relevant passers are Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, and Lamar Jackson. Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love weren’t considered because but not because they were Packers — they didn’t play when they were that young. Also neither Jacoby Brissett nor Geno Smith were considered because they had their careers derailed by Year 3. Smith fell off the face of the earth after his second Jets season.

And there were four passers in the league’s best who hadn’t yet reached the third season: Williams, Bo Nix, Drake Maye and Cam Ward.

Of the top 15, all but one of them either experienced improvement in completion percentages or were unchanged for Year 3 over what they achieved in their first two seasons. Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes were the only two unchanged, Mahomes simply because it’s difficult to improve on 65.9% in your first two years. However, even that is possible with more time on task. Justin Herbert came blazing in at 66.2% for two years and then elevated to 68.2% in Year 3.

On average, those 15 quarterbacks had a 3.18% completion rate increase in Year 3. It was buoyed by Josh Allen’s 12.6% increase, Matthew Stafford’s 9.0% increase, and Jalen Hurts’ 7.5% increase.  Tack 3.18% on to Caleb Williams’ 60.3% completion rate for two seasons with just an average increase and it could mean so much to the Bears’ passing game.

No doubt Ben Johnson has much more than 3.18% improvement in mind for the increase, especially after he wanted 70% last year and got only 58.1%.

Tua Tagovailoa was the only passer among this group with a worse completion percentage in Year 3 than he had for his first two seasons. He more than made up for it with a soaring passer rating in Year 3 from 88.8 to 105.5.

Passer ratings also went up

As could be expected, with better completion percentages in Year 3 came better overall passer ratings. Darnold, Herbert, Mahomes, C.J. Stroud and Lamar Jackson were the only ones with declining passer ratings in Year 3 over their first two seasons but Mahomes, Jackson and Herbert would have had a difficult time improving after the starts to their careers.

On average, the passer ratings increased for those 15 passers by 4.3 points. Williams was at 89.0 for his first two seasons. An average increase based on what those 15 passers did would be to 93.3.

Williams can and should be expected to improve from Year 2 to Year 3, and especially after he went through a full season in this offense in 2025.

Past averages say as much, but then again, Williams has never been about merely being average. His fourth-quarter comebacks last year back up this.

It might be best to adjust accordingly

QB completion % improvement

Year 3 after 2 years as starter

  • Josh Allen 12.6%
  • Matthew Stafford +9%  
  • Jalen Hurts 7.5%
  • Jared Goff 5.1%
  • Trevor Lawrence 2.7%
  • Bryce Young 2.7%
  • Dak Prescott 2.5%
  • Daniel Jones 2.1%
  • Justin Herbert 2%
  • Baker Mayfield 1.3%
  • C.J. Stroud 1.0%
  • Lamar Jackson 0.7%
  • Sam Darnold 0.0%
  • Patrick Mahomes 0.0%
  • Tua Tagovailoa -1.4%

Passer rating improvement

Year 3 after 2 years as starter

  • Josh Allen 29.0
  • Jalen Hurts 16.8
  • Tua Tagovailoa 16.7
  • Matthew Stafford 16.5
  • Jared Goff 11.7
  • Bryce Young 10.5
  • Baker Mayfield 10.0
  • Trevor Lawrence 5.1
  • Dak Prescott 1.4
  • Daniel Jones 0.7
  • C.J. Stroud -0.8
  • Justin Herbert -4.7
  • Lamar Jackson -5.4
  • Patrick Mahomes -6.4
  • Sam Darnold -14.4

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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