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Turnover Fears Around the Bears Miss the One Stat Caleb Williams Controls

Turnover regression fears keep following the Bears, but Caleb Williams' ball security may matter more to Chicago's playoff hopes than takeaways do.
Gene Chamberlain|
One aspect of Caleb Williams' passing can hold the key to the Bears returning to the playoffs, and it's not completion percentage.
One aspect of Caleb Williams' passing can hold the key to the Bears returning to the playoffs, and it's not completion percentage. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

So many predictions call for Bears regression this season because of turnovers from a defensive standpoint.

The thinking goes, their defense can't possibly lead the NFL in takeaways for a second straight season and support Caleb Williams, after doing so little to actually help their pass rush. It's just too difficult to lead the NFL in takeaways in consecutive years to achieve this, says a popular line of thinking. Without this crutch, Williams and the Bears would collapse.

This is so much garbage. The turnover statistics are slanted in a way to support the arguments of Bears detractors or other NFC North teams.

In actuality, the Bears are greatly favored by turnover numbers and ultimately the person who can play the biggest role in their success with regards to turnovers is Williams himself.

Takeaway title is not impossible

The Bears can lead the NFL in takeaways again and they have a key reason on their coaching staff. Secondary coach Al Harris was the defensive backs coach for a team that already did this. The Cowboys did it in both 2022 and 2021 despite numerous injuries in the secondary. They made the playoffs with 12-5 records in each of those seasons.

It's a complete rarity to be first two straight years, but there have been plenty of teams who might not lead in turnover differential and still remain in the top 10 from year to year to support their offense. Dennis Allen had a Saints defense with a four-year stretch of takeaway dominance. Even Matt Eberflus was able to do this for all four years he was in Indianapolis as a defensive coordinator. It's common.

There's an even more compelling stat about turnovers and turnover differential as they relate to the Bears regarding this argument.

The popular thinking is a team leading in takeaways automatically declines after they do it. While it's true they almost never lead in takeaways again, they definitely do not drop off in overall team strength and production a year after they led in takeaways.

Eight of the last nine teams to come away first in turnover differential managed to make the playoffs the very next season. It isn't a case of getting takeaways, and then dropping off in wins while their turnover differential fails to stay No. 1.

The only team in the last nine years to lead in turnover differential but then miss the playoffs the next season was the 2019 New England Patriots. They had a bit of a special situation. Tom Brady left them in 2020, so turnovers happened more often as they fell from 12-4 to 7-9.

Teams among the eight in nine years who made the playofs didn't all improve their records. In fact, the last three teams to lead in turnover differential all had worse records. However, they all made the playoffs. The Bills, Ravens and 49ers each went 13-4 and then were 12-5 the next season. It was just one more loss.

As for raw takeaway numbers, it's a bit different, but still doesn't support the idea the Bears would drop off in wins.

Since the Bears last made the Super Bowl, there have been 21 teams who either had the most takeaways or tied for most takeaways. Of the 21, 14 made the playoffs the next season. Some of them even won the Super Bowl.

Green Bay won it in 2010 after leading in takeaways in 2009. Seattle won in 2014 after leading in takeaways in 2013. The Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011 after finishing first in takeaways in 2010.

The key Caleb Williams holds

A far more important turnover stat in regards to success and playoff status is actually one Williams has a good deal of control over, and it's not completion percentage. As much as Bears coach Ben Johnson loves touting the analytic EPA as a sign of success, turnovers remains the king.

Since the Bears went to the Super Bowl in the 2006 seas on, there have been 23 teams to either lead the NFL in fewest turnovers or tie for it. Of those 23 teams, 20 of them made the playoffs. In fact, at one point teams leading in fewest turnovers made the playoffs 17 straight years.

The last team to lead in fewest turnovers and not make the playoffswas a team Johnson knew well. He was the offensive coordinator for the 2022 Detroit Lions. That was a rare case because it was his first year as coordinator and they caught fire just past the halfway point in the season. They made the playoffs the next two seasons, though.

As bad as his completion percentage has been, he's at least not throwing it to the wrong people. Williams has 23 games without throwing an interception. That's the most by any quarterback in their first two seasons in NFL history.

His 1.2% rate of interceptions is the best in NFL history for any quarterback with at least 1,000 pass attempts.

If he had been doing all of this with nickel-and-dime passes it would be understandable, but Williams last year was third in completions of 25 yards or longer.

If Williams again protects the football, the Bears can easily slip down a bit in takeaways and still remain competitive for a playoff berth or something even better.

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Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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