Bear Digest

Why the Bears’ playoff hopes cannot afford a loss to the Browns

The Bears are one of the teams with the most at state mathematically in Week 15.
Khari Thompson|
Chicago Bears safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (35) returns an interception against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, December 7, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 28-21.Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
Chicago Bears safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (35) returns an interception against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, December 7, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 28-21.Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin | Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

One might not think so just by looking at the opponent, but this week’s game against the Cleveland Browns is a must-win contest for the Chicago Bears. 

If you don’t want to take my word for it, just take a look at the numbers.

Pro Football Focus just published its latest look at which teams have the most at stake during a critical slate of Week 15 NFL action, and the Chicago Bears, who currently own the seventh and final NFC playoff spot, made the six-team cut. 

The Bears, according to the analysis, could see a 29% swing in their playoff probability depending on the results of this week’s game. If they win, their chances of making the postseason jump to 71% ahead of their next fateful contest against the Green Bay Packers, which could essentially seal the fate of the NFC North. If they fail, their percentage drops to 42%. While that’s tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the lowest potential swing compared to the other teams listed in the graphic (L.A. Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Detroit Lions), it still highlights this game as a massively important one.

It’s also notable that the Lions are among the teams with the most to gain or lose. Detroit’s playoff potential will be higher than the Bears’ even if both teams win, but Lions’ worse record puts them in greater danger of missing the playoffs if they lose to the Rams, their toughest remaining opponent, on Sunday. 

The 3-10 Browns, who are down to their third-string quarterback in Shedeur Sanders, shouldn’t be a problem for the Bears on paper. Plus, the freezing temperatures expected for Sunday—as low as 10 degrees for kickoff and -5 for the wind chill—should hopefully play into Chicago’s hands, neutralizing any surprise performances from Sanders and taking the game out of Garrett’s hands due to a steady dose of running the football. If the Bears play as physically as they have for the second half of this year, this shouldn’t be a problem.

But again, they have no room to look past Cleveland to the following week against the Packers.

If they do, their season might already be on the ropes.

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Khari Thompson
KHARI THOMPSON

Khari Thompson is a veteran journalist with bylines in NPR, USA TODAY, and others. He’s been covering the Chicago Bears since 2016 for a variety of outlets and served as a New England Patriots beat reporter for Boston.com and WEEI 93.7 FM. When he’s not writing about football, he still enjoys playing it.

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