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Bear Digest

Vegas' Opening Lines for Bears Games Display Dramatic Confidence

It's quite the switch from last year with betting lines on Bears games after a year when they had to convince everyone they belonged.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams celebrates the playoff win over Green Bay. Vegas lines currently favor the Bears in 12 games for 2026.
Caleb Williams celebrates the playoff win over Green Bay. Vegas lines currently favor the Bears in 12 games for 2026. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

If you follow the money, it says something quite different about the coming Bears season than what many of the national forecasts say.

In fact, it almost contradicts what those who make or lose money think about this year for Chicago, as well. There is far more belief Caleb Williams and Co. can repeat the magic than has been suggested.

The over-under on this Bears season has been set at 9 1/2 by DraftKings and numerous other gambling or analytical websites, even with a slate of games considered No. 1 for strength of schedule.

Check out any number of predictions for this year and the Bears are listed among teams most likely to regress, or one of the division winner most unlikely to repeat.

Fact: Bears have favorite's role 12 times

And yet, there is evidence all of this means little and it's coming from Vegas lines themselves.

When the NFL schedule dropped this week, betting lines were set for each game to be played in the 17-game schedule.

According to logic, the Bears then should be a favorite in only about nine games, maybe 10, if they are at 9 1/2 over/under or victories.

Go through each of the 17 Bears games and you'll find the Bears are favored to win 12 of them, not nine or 10.

The only games in which the Bears opened as underdogs were first game against the Packers at Green Bay, the night game at Seattle, the game on Thanksgiving at Detroit, the game in December at Buffalo in the rematch with DJ Moore, and the season finale at Minnesota.

They're three-point underdogs at Green Bay, 4 1/2-point underdogs at Seattle, 2 1/2-point underdogs at Detroit, 3 1/2-point underdogs at Buffalo and 1 1/2-point underdogs at Minnesota.

The biggest home advantages they had at opening were 8 1/2 over the Jets and 6 1/2 over the Saints. Their biggest road edge is  5 1/2 at Miami.

The Bears have come a long way in the eyes of Vegas. Last year the Bears opened as favorites in only seven of their 17 games before going on to an 11-6 record and the NFC North title.

Cliches like, "the home advantage is worth three points," mean nothing in terms of actually stating who the favorite is for a given game. Those are simply analysis of trends someone once noted.

The simple fact is the Bears were favored in 12 games at the start of betting on the actual schedule. It might eventually mean people realize a windfall by betting against them weekly, but in the eyes of Vegas making bets on the Bears last year was considered stupid. And look what it would have produced.

For those interested in such things, the Bears are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl, 13-1 to make it there. There are 14 teams with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl, so Vegas might see the Bears as big week-to-week winners, but not a serious threat to bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

Someone requires more convincing.

Bears opening betting lines

2026 NFL schedule per DraftKings

  • Week 1: Bears -2 1/2 at Carolina
  • Week 2: Bears -3 1/2 vs. Vikings
  • Week 3: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Eagles
  • Week 4: Bears -8 1/2 vs. Jets
  • Week 5: Bears +3 at Packers
  • Week 6: Bears -3 at Falcons
  • Week 7: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Patriots
  • Week 8: Bears +4 1/2 at Seahawks
  • Week 9: Bears -3 1/2 vs. Buccaneers
  • Week 10: BYE
  • Week 11: Bears -6 1/2 vs. Saints
  • Week 12: Bears +2 1/2 vs. Lions
  • Week 13: Bears -2 1/2 vs. Jaguars
  • Week 14: Bears -5 1/2 at Dolphins
  • Week 15: Bears +3 1/2 at Bills
  • Week 16: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Packers
  • Week 17: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Lions
  • Week 18: Bears +1 1/2 at Vikings

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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