Bear Digest

What cost of Bears dealing away past picks can mean for this draft

Trading away a fourth-rounder and fifth-rounder in the past hurt the Bears strategically in this draft, but one way they avoid being damaged could be trading back in Round 1.
Gene Chamberlain|
Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr. blocks against Stanford linebacker David Bailey. Conerly will visit the Bears at Halas Hall.
Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr. blocks against Stanford linebacker David Bailey. Conerly will visit the Bears at Halas Hall. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

It's with the NFL draft approaching, where Ryan Poles' willingness to trade away middle-round draft picks in the past shows up as a real problem.

When a trade pans out, it's fine. It's merely the cost of doing business.

When it doesn't, the Bears not only failed at judging the talent of a player they brought in but they have cost themselves the chance to improve with a younger draft pick to develop.

There is another damaging side to it, and the Bears could wind up realizing this in the draft if they decide there is a particular player they'd like to draft but they fear someone might take him first.

In this case, the answer would be trading up to get this player. What will they have to trade

Equipped to move up

If the idea is moving up in Round 1, the Bears would be fine. They have a pair of second-round picks and a third-rounder who they could choose from if they wanted to move up as far as the fourth pick for, say Ashton Jeanty. The NFL trade value chart says they can make a deal like that. The two second-round picks they have are worth 510 and 490 points, and going from 10 to No. 4 would require 500 points or a second-round pick.

Moving up to No. 7 might mean giving up their third-round pick based on the point value (230) for that 72nd selection.

However, it is in the second round where the Bears could face limitations moving up if they wanted to do it.

When they had a fourth-round pick, the 109th pick overall, they easily could have traded it to move up all the way from No. 39 in Round 2 to the first pick in the round.

How past trades hurt

For example, a player they have slated for a 30 visit to Halas Hall is Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr. Pro Football Focus grades Conerly as its 36th best player.

It's possible for the Bears to get Conerly at 39 but there could be other teams out there interested.

Oregonian reporter James Crepea reported Conerly has 30 visits slated for Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Washington.

It might help having that fourth-round pick to move up if they wanted to take Conerly in Round 2 but they traded the 109th pick to Buffalo last year, one which turned out to be the 109th pick, in order to get back into the draft last year in Round 5 so they could select defensive end Austin Booker.

Although Booker had little impact as a rookie, it's too soon to say whether his acquisition made this move worthwhile after only one year.

It is not too soon to say the Bears sure could have used that fourth-round pick back now in case they needed to move up, or even just to fill the gap between their third-round and fifth-round picks. There is a big gap in which talent levels go past between early third round and early fifth round and they can't do anything about it because they no longer have that fourth-round pick,

Costly Ryan Bates deal

Another trade like this that proved costly was dealing away a fifth-round pick to Buffalo in March of 2024 to get guard/center Ryan Bates.

When they did this, they didn't have the fifth-round pick when they wanted to take Booker, and they had to make a deal to trade away this year's fourth-rounder to get back in and take Booker.

Trading picks to move up and down the draft board becomes tricky and costly.

Lack of picks in specific rounds can lead to more trades.

It's all enough to make a team want to stand its ground and pick, or better yet move back at strategic points to pick up extra picks that can be used for positioning to select desired players.

It’s a course of action Poles even hinted at during the owners meetings.

"For where we are right now, I'm not confident exactly where the first nine picks are going to fall," Poles said. "But that's something that we'll look into and we'll definitely weigh the option of, 'Hey if we can move back and collect a certain pick in this range, could that be really beneficial for us as well?' So that'll be in play."

In this case, the strategic point is Round 1, pick No. 10, and it becomes a place where the Bears can atone for past mistakes by moving back for more picks.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.