Bear Digest

What history says for Ben Johnson's chances to turn around Bears

Analysis: Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson is trying to turn a team with a terrible record into a double-digit winner and history says it's tough, but one great factor is on his side.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ben Johnson and GM Ryan Poles could be the right mix considering how other turnaround teams have done it.
Ben Johnson and GM Ryan Poles could be the right mix considering how other turnaround teams have done it. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears were in lock step with Ben Johnson as head coach this week as the majority of veteran players have left until training camp.

They seem convinced the attention he and his staff show to detail and improved accountability will combine with their new coach's play-calling ability to help end the franchise's streak of six straight seasons without a winning record.

All teams with new head coaches foster such hope. The Bears obviously are not unique.

The betting odds will say one thing about chances for the Bears to climb over .500 or to get to the playoffs, but NFL coaching history says something slightly different.

Fan Duel and DraftKings have the Bears' win total at over/under of 8 1/2, which is exactly .500.

Bears have an edge

History suggests the Bears will find it more difficult than the oddsmakers say to be a winning team, but they do have the same advantage as many teams that actually did succeed at a dramatic turnaround.

In the last 10 years, there have been 46 first-time head coaches and 20 of them posted winning records for their first seasons. The group of 46 included 11 who managed to reach double-digit wins for their first season:

  • Seattle's Mike Macdonald in 2024
  • Houston's DeMeco Ryans in 2023
  • Minnesota's Kevin O'Connell in 2022
  • Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski in 2020
  • Green Bay's Matt LaFleur in 2019
  • The Bears' Matt Nagy in 2019
  • The Colts' Frank Reich in 2019
  • The Rams' Sean McVay in 2017
  • Miami's Adam Gase  2016
  • The Giants' Ben McAdoo in 2016
  • The Jets' Todd Bowles in 2015

LaFleur and O'Connell were the only ones among them to reach 13 wins in their rookie seasons.

Chances appear solid that Johnson will, at the very least, get a winning record in one of his first two seasons.

Losers get fired

First the bad: Eight of the 46 rookie head coaches got fired after or during their first season.

Since the five from last year haven't had second seasons yet–and Jerod Mayo of the Patriots won't because he was among those fired after a year–it means there have been 34 to consider who made it through two seasons in the last decade. Of those, only 11 failed to post a winning record by the end of their second season.

As a result, it would seem Johnson has an excellent chance of being a winner within two years.

However, the dramatic, rapid turnaround is what Johnson is seeking.

The Bears need to go from a five-win team to a winning record, even a double-digit win total. Surprisingly, a dramatic turnaround of this sort hasn't been as rare as it might seem considering how daunting the task might look at the end of any horrible NFL season.

In the last decade, there were nine coaches who had double-digit win totals as rookies and improved a team's record by at least five wins.

Ryans' Texans (3-13-1 to 10-7), Stefanski's Browns (6-10 to 11-5), LaFleur's Packers (6-9-1 to 13-3), Reich's Colts (4-12 to 10-6), Nagy's Bears (5-11 to 12-4), McVay's Rams (4-12 to 11-5), the Giants' McAdoo (6-10 to 11-5) and Bowles' Jets (4-12 to 10-6) all did it. Also, O'Connell did this but hardly inherited what could be called a terrible record. The Vikings were 8-9 under Mike Zimmer but then went 13-4 under O'Connell.

Success' common denominator

What has to be extremely heartening for the Bears is the common circumstance for almost all of these nine teams who had dramatic turnarounds to win in double digits.

It's often perceived that teams who must rebuild with a new GM and new head coach are facing a daunting challenge. That's understandable. In that case, the talent base usually needs to be restored as much as the coaching staff.

However, in the case of those teams who improved by five victories to at least 10 wins under new head coaches, only Stefanski and O’Connell also had to work with a new GM.  All the rest had the same GM. And, as said, O’Connell hardly inherited a bad team when Minnesota went 8-9.

Like almost all of those who succeeded in making the dramatic turnaround with a new coach, the Bears are also trying to do it without a change in GMs.

Their missed chance

It might seem like dramatic turnarounds happen often in a league based on parity like the NFL. It does happen even more often than these numbers indicated. That’s because this list includes only rookie head coaches and not veterans who got another head coaching job. 

For example, Jim Harbaugh just did it last year, taking a 5-12 Chargers team from 2023 to the playoffs in 2024. There's a lot to be said for hiring veteran head coaches, as long it's not John Fox with the Bears.

Harbaugh was a coach who was there for the taking if the Bears sought to dump Matt Eberflus after records of 3-14 and 7-10. They kept him around for another run through, and a 5-12 record, after they said they didn't even consider Harbaugh.

The same thing happened with Dan Quinn. He took an abysmal Commanders team to the NFC championship game in his first season as a veteran coach returning to the fray, just a few years after the Bears rejected him as head coach in favor of Eberflus.

So here Bears fans are, with the hope a first-time head coach can come in and do the dramatic 2025 turnaround.

The last 10 years of NFL history say Ben Johnson has less than a 25% chance of doing it, but without the burden of gutting the roster under a new GM those chances look significantly better.

Keeping Poles around as GM instead of overturning the whole organization again might end up being the extra little kick the Bears needed to help Johnson achieve his goal.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.