Bear Digest

When it will become apparent Caleb Williams has arrived as an NFL QB

Analysis: This week's game in Las Vegas can go a long way toward showing whether Caleb Williams has arrived because a win means doing something difficult so far to accomplish.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams stands and fires against the Packers last season at Lambeau Field, his only road victory.
Caleb Williams stands and fires against the Packers last season at Lambeau Field, his only road victory. | Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

There are plenty of reasons for excitement about Caleb Williams but basing it on Sunday's four-touchdown performance against Dallas is only one of them.

The fact he piled up enough statistics to be nominated for FedEx Air & Ground player of the week is fun for fans but there have been plenty of instances of young quarterbacks doing something spectacular for the Bears through the years in one game before fizzling.

Those of us old enough to remember Cade McNown throwing for four touchdowns, 301 yards and beating the Lions in 1999, or throwing for two TDs the next year to beat the Packers realize how one good game means little beyond that week's win. McNown, a first rounder, was gone after two seasons.

Those of us very old will remember Bobby Douglass throwing for four touchdowns to beat Buffalo in the only start of his second season, but he probably peaked as a passer that day.

Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields, even Rex Grossman had brilliant single games in their first two years, but could sustain nothing.

This does look different because Williams showed the ability to do something similar multiple times last year, as well, and because he has a stronger supporting cast growing in many cases along with him. So did Trubisky. In fact, he played on a division champion team in Year 2.

The main reason it looks different than all of those others is Ben Johnson and the impact he makes on Williams.

Compare Williams' start to this second season to that of the other quarterbacks in his class who became starters. You'll see a player labeled a bust by many gun jumpers or those with agendas is now outplaying all of the other QBs in his class. At least this is the case in the critical stats of passer rating, TD passes and yards per attempt.

Class of 2024 QBs

Through 3 weeks

Comp. %

Yards

TD

Int

Yds/Att

Rating

Caleb Williams

63.4%

715

7

1

7.7

107.6

Drake Maye

72.6%

785

5

2

7.4

101.3

Jayden Daniels*

59.7%

433

3

0

6.0

90.8

Spencer Rattler

67.2%

639

4

1

5.4

88.2

Bo Nix

64.2%

535

5

3

5.6

83.4

Michael Penix

58.6%

605

2

1

6.1

71.3

J.J. McCarthy*

58.6%

301

2

3

7.3

67.2

*Started 2 games

There is significance here, although so early in the year it can all vanish with a few bad games or when they start playing a few very difficult teams later on the schedule.

The real measure of how far Williams has come will be this week in Las Vegas, and in future road games like the Washington game coming out of the bye week.

Williams has not shown he can play well on the road yet with any consistency. This is a real hurdle he must clear.

To date, he is 183 of 306 for 1,821 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions for an 81.89 passer rating. He's not even averaging 6.0 yards per attempt on the road, at a paltry 5.95.

In the more important statistical category, the Bears are 1-8 in the nine road games he started, the lone win coming in last year's finale at Green Bay after the Packers pulled Jordan Love and also removed Josh Jacobs as they were trying to get ready for a playoff game. In essence, that game should be tossed out. If it is, Williams as no road wins.

Wins, many argue, are not a quarterback statistic.

To the contrary, wins are the only statistic that matter.

Other statistics are fine for fantasy football. Analytics like EPA can say who probably should have won a game. But wins in starts by a quarterback will put him in a higher category.

Tom Brady is the greatest of all time because he won seven Super Bowls, not because of his passing statistics.

Usually those things can go hand in hand, but not always. Sometimes QBs find ways to pull out wins in terribly played games. Look at what J.J. McCarthy did for the Vikings in the opener. They had no business winning and he had played terrible. His final statistics were still unimpressive but he found the way to win in the end. 

When Williams is able to go on the road and win games with a degree of consistency, the Bears can be convinced he is "the one." Doing against better teams means even more.

Until then, his good games and numbers are merely promising.

More Chicago Bears News

X: BearsOnSI

Published | Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.