Two Big Factors Reportedly Deciding Joe Burrow's Chances at Return During 2025 Season

CINCINNATI — Joe Burrow reportedly has two big factors determining the trajectory of his turf toe return: A perfect recovery and a contending Bengals team.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that in his latest update on Sunday. Burrow is in full recovery mode now after having had the surgery to repair his Grade 3 turf toe on Friday. He could possibly return for the final three games of the season.

"Browning went 4-3 as a starter in 2023 when Burrow missed the remainder of the season following a November wrist injury," Rapoport noted about the Bengals situation. "Burrow had surgery on Friday on his Grade 3 turf toe and is out a minimum of 12 weeks, sources say. Burrow is unable to travel for at least the first two weeks of his rehab, but he is expected to be around the team and involved. Burrow could potentially return in December if the Bengals' record warrants it, and if his rehab goes perfectly."

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed the complete surgery ahead of the weekend.

"Joe just had surgery. He's in recovery. Everything went well. No timeline (for a return)," Taylor told the media on Friday.

Getting off to a 2-0 start is massive in this equation. Teams historically have a 60%-plus chance to make the playoffs by starting that well, and that's right around where Cincinnati's chances sit.

ESPN's FPI gives the Bengals a 62.7% chance to make the playoffs right now after starting 2-0. Meanwhile, many sportsbooks have dropped their win total over/under to around 7.5 wins, which would obviously not get them close to contention unless the whole AFC North collapsed.

Projections are all over the place for a team that hasn't played with Jake Browning for a full game in almost two years, but the talent and strong start are there to maybe get Burrow back for a playoff push if the winning ways stay viable.

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