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Bengals’ Playoff Hopes Crater: What Sunday’s Loss Means—and What Must Happen to Make Postseason

The Bengals are 4-9 after Sunday's loss in Buffalo.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow runs away from Buffalo Bills defensive end AJ Epenesa and gets off a pass during first half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Dec. 7, 2025.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow runs away from Buffalo Bills defensive end AJ Epenesa and gets off a pass during first half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Dec. 7, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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CINCINNATI — Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow knows their playoff chances took a major hit on Sunday.

Cincinnati lost to the Bills 39-34 to fall to 4-9 on the season. A win would've propelled them to within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North. Instead, the Bengals need to win out to have a chance.

Following the loss, Cincinnati has a 3% chance of making the playoffs. They need to win their final four games to have any chance of winning the AFC North. If they win their final four contests, they have a 28% chance of making the postseason according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

The Steelers beat the Ravens on Sunday, which makes the path a bit tougher. Pittsburgh is 7-6 on the season and in control of their own destiny.

The Bengals need Pittsburgh to lose three of their final four games. The Steelers play the Dolphins, Lions, Browns and Ravens over the last month of the regular season. Cincinnati also needs to win out and they need the Ravens to lose one of their other three games to the Patriots, Packers and Steelers.

Burrow Knew Playoffs Were Uphill Battle

Joe Burrow
Dec 7, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws in the third quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

If the Ravens had beat the Steelers, then it would've given the Bengals a bit more of a chance. Their odds dropped by about 4% when the Steelers beat the Ravens on Sunday.

"I think that makes it a little tougher. That probably lowers our chances even more," Joe Burrow said when he was told Pittsburgh beat Baltimore. "That's how the cookie crumbles. I knew it was going to be an uphill battle for us when I was coming back and that wasn't really in my thought process too much. I just wanted to come back and put on a show and play well in front of everybody."

Burrow returned when the Bengals were 3-8 on the season. He knew a playoff run was unlikely.

"We want to win games and be in the playoffs and do everything that we say we are capable of doing, but when I came back I knew it was going to be an uphill battle," Burrow said. "We were 3-8 at that point and that's certainly not a playoff caliber position to be in."

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James Rapien
JAMES RAPIEN

James Rapien is the publisher of Bengals OnSI. He's also the host of the Locked on Bengals podcast and Cincinnati Bengals Talk on YouTube. The Cincinnati native also wrote a book about the history of the Cincinnati Bengals called Enter The Jungle. Prior to joining Bengals On SI, Rapien worked at 700 WLW and ESPN 1530 in Cincinnati

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