Why the Cincinnati Bengals Are the Favorites To Be the Miami Dolphins' Opponent in Spain Next Season

CINCINNATI – The NFL announced Friday that the Miami Dolphins will be home team for the league’s first game played in Spain, and the Cincinnati Bengals could be their opponent in Madrid.
The Bengals are one of the nine teams the Dolphins are scheduled to host in 2025.
But the chances of the Bengals playing the Dolphins in Madrid are much greater than 1 in 9 (11 percent).
First, you can eliminate the New England Patriots as an option. They played in Germany in 2023 and in London in 2024. No team other than the Jacksonville Jaguars – who play in London every year – has played three consecutive international games.
And you almost certainly can eliminate the New York Jets because not only did they play in London last year, they will be going back in 2025 as a host team.
That drops the Bengals’ chances of being the opponent to 1 in 7 (14.3 percent).
There aren’t any more locks to remove from consideration, but there are reasons to believe other teams have a reduced chance of facing the Dolphins in Madrid.
In the first three years of the 17-game schedule, nine of the 10 games played in Europe were between teams from the same conference.
That could suggest the Dolphins’ 2025 NFC opponents – the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders – are longshots to face Miami in Madrid.
Two of the five international games in 2024 were inter-conference contests, although one of those involved the Jaguars, who always are outliers in any of these conversations.
If you take the three NFC teams off the list of options, the Bengals’ chances increase to 1 in 4 (25 percent).
It is worth noting, however, that the Commanders have the fourth longest drought without an international game, with their only appearance coming in 2016 against the Bengals.
The Steelers (11 years), Cowboys (10) and Lions (nine) have the longest droughts.
The Bengals are tied for the sixth longest drought, having not played an international game since 2019. That’s another reason to think their chances are good.
Here are Miami’s other home opponents in 2025 (with their most recent international appearance):
Baltimore Ravens (2023)
Buffalo Bills (2023)
Los Angeles Chargers (2019)
Not only have the Bills played an overseas game recently, their AFC East affiliation might preclude them from consideration as the NFL hasn't staged a division game in Europe since 2019 (Buccaneers vs Panthers).
So if you were creating betting odds, the Bengals and Chargers would be the two favorites.
And given the star power Cincinnati has with Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and, perhaps, Tee Higgins, the Bengals feel like the leading candidate.
The league will announce the matchups for all of the international games closer to the release of the full schedule in May.
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