AFC Playoff Picture: Buffalo Bills Trending Upward After Win vs. Dallas Cowboys
Coming out of their bye week, the Buffalo Bills faced an uphill climb if they were going to get back into the playoff picture.
The Bills had a 21 percent chance by ESPN to be among the top seven teams in the AFC at the end of the regular season, with games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys on the horizon.
After a 20-17 win over the Chiefs (9-5) on Dec. 10 and a dominant 31-10 victory over the Cowboys (10-4) on Sunday, Buffalo's playoff odds have increased dramatically to 64 percent by ESPN's metrics.
The Bills are one of five teams in the AFC that are 8-6, though they have better odds than their compatriots in the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals despite still being one spot out of a playoff spot. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who are in a three-way tie with Indianapolis and Houston for first place in the AFC South, are the only 8-6 team with better odds than Buffalo.
ESPN gives the Colts a 55 percent chance, while the Texans are at 53 percent. The Bengals have the lowest odds among the 8-6 teams, with a 35 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Dec. 17, Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys: Bills offensive lineman Dion Dawkins (73) and tight end Dawson Knox (88) celebrating a touchdown in their 31-10 win over the Cowboys.
USA Today Sports
The Texans and Colts play each other in Indianapolis in Week 18, which will knock the losing team down a rung in the playoffs race. The Texans also have a tough game this Sunday when they host the Cleveland Browns (9-5), who have almost become a lock to take one of the three wild card spots with an 89 percent chance to make the playoffs. In Week 17, they host the Tennessee Titans (5-9), who they just beat 19-16 in overtime and eliminated them from playoff contention.
The Colts face the Atlanta Falcons (6-8) this Sunday on the road and the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) at home in Week 17. The Bengals close out their season with games against the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7), Chiefs (9-5) and the Browns.
How the Bills fared in their four-game stretch against the New York Jets (5-9), Philadelphia Eagles (10-3), Chiefs and Cowboys was always going to determine if they can turn their season around. They went 3-1 and were a lucky bounce away against the Eagles from going undefeated.
Now, they get a bit of a breather when they face the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) and New England Patriots (3-11) in back-to-back weeks. If everything breaks right for the Bills in the next two weeks, they could vie for the divisional crown in Week 18 if the Miami Dolphins slip up against the Cowboys or Baltimore Ravens (11-3).
The Bills have looked like the team that's been a perennial playoff team and Super Bowl contender they've been tabbed to be in the last three seasons. With their playoff odds as high as they've been in the last four weeks, it may not just be the Wild Card the Bills set their sights on with three games left in the season.
