ESPN Fantasy Analyst's astonishingly low projections for Bills' QB Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen is an ascending superstar, but ESPN's fantasy football projections suggest the three-time MVP finalist is in line to regress.

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after a / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Is he talking about the same Josh Allen?

The one who has accounted for 40+ total touchdowns each of the past four seasons? The Buffalo Bills' quarterback that is responsible for more total touchdowns over the first six years of an NFL career than any other player in league history? That Josh Allen?

ESPN's Mike Clay released his 2024 fantasy football stat projections for all 32 NFL teams, and Allen's predicted numbers would represent a regression not yet seen during the franchise field general's professional tenure.

Appearing in 15 of 17 games, Allen finished the 2024 season simulation with 31 total touchdowns (23 pass, 8 rush) and 3,699 yards passing. Maybe it's a case of overly conservative computer projections, but it's hard to imagine Allen's production falling off so dramatically if he stays on the field throughout the regular season.

He played through an elbow injury in 2022 and nursed a shoulder injury in 2023 and still put up much higher statistical production than the 2024 ESPN projections.

Allen, a three-time NFL MVP finalist, has had no fewer than 4,283 pass yards or 29 TD passes in any of his four most-recent seasons. Even over only 16 games in 2022 (game at Bengals was cancelled), Allen managed to throw for 35 touchdowns.

With more time in offensive coordinator Joe Brady's scheme, Allen should continue to produce MVP worthy numbers. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are not enough to slow Allen, who is a dual threat with a habit of spreading the ball around. In 2020, he connected with 12 different players on touchdown passes. In 2023, 10 players caught at least one TD pass from Allen.

Either Clay is trolling or he hasn't watched enough of Allen lately. As long as he remains healthy and available, there's a high chance Allen crushes the projected numbers.