Bills 2026 Strength of Schedule Sets Stage For Rough Road in Pursuit of Super Bowl

There’s no question the Buffalo Bills have a challenging regular-season slate upcoming in 2026.

With the New England Patriots coming off a run to the Super Bowl, Buffalo’s division has improved, and their non-division matchups this season are also daunting, so much so that a recent report from Sharp Football Analysis sets the stage for Buffalo to follow a rough road this year.

According to the report, the Bills’ strength of schedule ranks 14th, near the middle of the pack. However, in a separate graph later in the report, their scheduleon the wrong side of the threshold termed “easier than average”, which is a bit more accurate representation of what Buffalo will face. The report used projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers to reach its conclusion.

With two games against the Patriots coming up, along with several other matchups against quality teams from a year ago, it will be interesting to see how the Bills fare during a critical campaign.

The schedule

Houston Texans defensive tackle Tim Settle Jr. (98) sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the second half at NRG Stadium. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The NFL schedule is expected to be released sometime within the next week or so. When it is, the Bills will have eight matchups against 2025 playoff teams revealed, including a road tilt with the Denver Broncos, who defeated Buffalo in the Divisional Round a year ago. The list of other teams the Bills will face on the road includes the Houston Texans, who beat the Bills in the regular season last year, the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams.

Buffalo last faced LA in 2024, when the Rams won 44-42, while the Bills beat the Packers 27-17 in 2022.

At home, the Bills’ most difficult matchups include the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears, while three teams who missed the playoffs but are expected to return to glory, the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, are also awaiting Buffalo in 2026.

The Bills and Chiefs have squared off 10 times since 2020, including playoffs, with each team winning five matchups. Buffalo is 4-1 against the Ravens since 2021, including playoffs.

There will likely be a few manageable stretches throughout the schedule, which includes two games apiece with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, along with the Las Vegas Raiders, who were the worst team in the NFL last season.

However, when you take a closer look, beyond the Vegas odds, there is reason to be concerned about how the Bills will be able to navigate their ’26 slate as they pursue a coveted Super Bowl title.

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