Look Away, Bills' Fans — Sean McDermott Team One of NFL's Best to Never Reach Super Bowl

Buffalo's 2022 playoff run was their best chance at a Lombardi according to DVOA

Jan 22, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle DJ Reader (98) checks on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) after a hit in the fourth quarter during an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium | USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills had a whirlwind of a season in 2022.

A home game was relocated to Detroit due to a blizzard. Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest led to the team's Week 17 game against the Bengals to be canceled. The team ultimately "ran out of gas" according to Micah Hyde.

According to Aaron Schatz, that 2022 season was Buffalo's best roster to never reach the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, after having a coat thrown over him, walks to the bench in the waning minutes of their divisional game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Highmark Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Numbers

Schatz's DVOA formula considers "efficiency on a play-by-play basis adjusted for situation and opponent."

The 2022 Bills rank eighth all-time in DVOA for a team to fall short of reaching 'the big game'. With a DVOA score of 36.3%, the Bills were 36.3% better than what the formula finds is the 'average' team that season.

According to Schatz, "The 2022 Bills are the only team in the history of DVOA to finish either first or second in all three phases of the game: second on offense, second on defense, first on special teams."

Sep 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) celebrate s touchdown in in front of Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) in the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports

What Happened?

Hyde probably said it best.

The team barely escaped with a win in the Wild Card Round against the Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins, winning 34-31 at home.

The Divisional Round served as a rematch against the Bengals after their regular season meeting was canceled. Cincinnati jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, and the Bills ultimately fell 27-10 in the snow.

Josh Allen was under duress all game, completing just 25 of 42 pass attempts for 264 yards, throwing no touchdowns to one interception. The run game was nonexistent, with Allen's eight carries for 26 yards both leading the team. The do-it-all QB also tallied the team's lone touchdown with his legs.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns, with no picks, and Joe Mixon added 105 yards and a score on the ground.

Jan 22, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is tackled by Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Mike Hilton (21) with defensive end Joseph Ossai (58) and defensive tackle BJ Hill (92) approaching in the second quarter of an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports

Playing Spoiler

The only team that rivals Buffalo in terms of recent success without a Super Bowl appearance is the Baltimore Ravens.

The 2023 Ravens ranked first in Schatz's exercise, while the 2024 Ravens ranked fourth. The latter saw their season end in the Divisional Round against the Bills.

According to Schatz, Baltimore led the league in DVOA "by dominating the fifth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses," during their 12-5 campaign, which included a 35-10 blowout against Buffalo on Sunday Night Football.

The Bills got their revenge, defeating the Ravens 27-25 at home, capped off with Mark Andrews dropping the game-tying two point conversion with 1:33 left in the game.

Jan 19, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) avoids a tackle by Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (92) to gain a first down in the first quarter of a 2025 AFC divisional round game | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

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