The Brian Flores–Ben Johnson Chess Match: Here’s What the Numbers Say

The NFL’s most tantalizing matchup of the Week 2 schedule takes place at Soldier Field in Chicago on Sunday when the Bears host the Vikings. With all due respect to Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell and Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, the attention will be on Vikings’ defensive play-caller Brian Flores and Bears’ offensive play-caller Ben Johnson, two of the best in the sport.

There’s Johnson, bringing back a Bears’ run-game tradition that dates back to the days of Red Grange and carries through the times of Gale Sayers in the 1960s and Walter Payton in the 1980s. Johnson’s backs, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, aren’t top-five picks or Hall of Famers like Sayers and Payton, but they’re no strangers to lighting up the Chicago box scores. Then there’s Flores. This Vikings’ defense is not the Purple People Eaters, but Flores’s tactics are worth a ferocious nickname of their own.

In more modern terms, it’s the battle of “sickos,” an astute offensive genius looking to run wild and set the single-season scoring record vs. a defensive mastermind who blitzes and pressures opponents at a rate like no other.

In Johnson’s first season as head coach last season, the Bears and Vikings split the series 1–1 as Minnesota won the Week 1 matchup thanks to a fourth-quarter comeback, and the Bears won in Week 11 with a walk-off field goal. In four previous matchups when Johnson was the Lions’ OC and Flores the Vikings’ DC, Johnson and the Lions went 4–0.

Here are five numbers that could define the upcoming matchup between the Bears and Vikings.

48.1

The Bears’ rushing success rate in 2025, which ranked first in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Perhaps the biggest key to this matchup will be the Bears’ rushing attack vs. the Vikings’ run defense. The Bears have been one of the best running teams in the league since Johnson took over last season, and rushed for 291 yards and six touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 1.

6 TDs in week 1 😳

How far can the @chicagobears run game take them this year? pic.twitter.com/Y3rLolMUn0
— Inside the NFL (@insidetheNFL) September 17, 2026

A season ago, the Bears averaged 144.5 rushing yards per game, which ranked third. When they faced Flores and the Vikings last season, they rushed for 119 yards in their Week 1 matchup and 140 yards in Week 11.

The Vikings’ run defense ranked 21st in both rushing yards allowed (124.1 per game) and rushing success rate allowed last season. The Vikings sought to improve their run defense this offseason by selecting Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange, the latter of whom came up with a clutch stop on Jordan Love’s failed fourth-down quarterback sneak attempt for the Packers.

The Vikings’ run defense did look good in Week 1, holding the Packers to 66 rushing yards. However, Green Bay was also without Josh Jacobs, who is on the commissioner’s exempt list.

“They do a good job,” Flores said of the Bears’ run game. “There’s shifts, there’s motions, a lot of eye candy. Everything that could potentially give a defense problems, they do.”

If the Vikings can’t limit the Bears’ run game, Flores’s creativity in pass defense won’t matter much.

78.3

The percentage of dropbacks the Vikings blitzed Jordan Love on in Week 1, per Next Gen Stats. The Vikings are known for blitzing more than any other team, and they kicked off the 2026 season blitzing Love at the fourth-highest rate in a game since 2018. They sacked Love four times, and he threw an interception while under pressure.

Per Courtney Cronin of ESPN, the Vikings blitzed Williams on 37.2% of his dropbacks in Week 1 of 2025. Williams went 6-for-13 for 36 yards and a touchdown while averaging just 2.8 yards per attempt on those dropbacks. In Week 11, the Vikings blitzed Williams on 66.7% of his dropbacks, and he responded by going 11-for-21 for 126 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. Against all opponents in 2025, Williams completed 53% of his passes against the blitz for 1,381 yards, 17 touchdowns and three picks.

It’s not just that the Vikings blitz; it’s also the creativity and confusion Flores creates, lining up six or more defenders at the line of scrimmage and leaving quarterbacks unsure who is rushing and who is dropping back into coverage. Johnson has done as good a job as any at limiting the impact of Flores’s blitzes on his offense, but even he acknowledges he can get caught up in overthinking the matchup.

The Vikings' communication on defense is insane pic.twitter.com/Ch6lcXOdew
— Tyler Forness (@TheRealForno) September 17, 2026

72.4

Williams’s completion percentage against the Panthers in Week 1. Completion percentage has been an emphasis for Williams, particularly after he completed only 58.1% of his passes in 2025. He ranked 32nd in both completion percentage and on-target rate, as well as 31st in bad throw rate, according to Pro Football Reference.

Was Week 1 an aberration or a sign of the progress Williams has made as he enters his third season? Inaccurate passes certainly kept the Bears’ offense from performing better when the two teams faced off last season in Week 11. In Week 1 of 2025, Williams started 10-of-10, but finished 21-of-35 for 210 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota. In Week 11, he was 16-of-32 for 193 yards.

Williams told reporters that Drew Brees advised him on how he could improve his completion percentage this offseason. “He simply just said, ‘Find three more completions. You find three more completions, you’ll be a 70% guy.’”

🐻 @drewbrees’ advice stuck with @CALEBcsw as he heads into Year 3 with the @ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/Bx0Ke8d7CF
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 17, 2026

If Williams can find three more completions as he did in Week 1, it could be enough to lift the Bears to the win.

1

The number of red zone touchdowns the Vikings allowed in Week 1 against the Packers. The Vikings defense has been clutch in the red zone, which could be a key factor on Sunday. Last week, the Packers scored one of their two touchdowns in the red zone and the other off an 81-yard catch-and-run by Christian Watson. They otherwise settled for three field goals.

In 2025, the Vikings defense allowed a -0.18 EPA per play in the red zone, seventh-best in the league. They also allowed only 21 red-zone touchdowns, tied for the fewest in the NFL.

In that Week 11 matchup between the Vikings and Bears a season ago, the Bears settled for five field goal attempts (four were successful). The Bears will need to be better in the red zone or rely on explosive plays this week to get the win again.

84

The number of yards Williams rushed for in two matchups against the Vikings last season. It’s already daunting enough to stop the Bears’ backs, who each rushed for at least 100 yards in Week 1. Then there’s Williams, who added 65 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers. The Vikings’ blitzes and pressures are great at taking down opposing quarterbacks and helped them sack Williams four times in 2025. Still, Williams also escaped and ran away from several incoming defenders. Keeping Williams contained will be key for the Vikings’ defense to make their presence more felt on him.

Vikings edge rusher Dallas Turner, who is coming off a monster Week 1, said ahead of the game, “He might be the hardest [quarterback] to tackle. He doesn’t want to get sacked. He shows escapability and everything like that.”

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