Valuing Broncos' 2024 Draft Class: MHH vs. the Consensus Big Board

The Denver Broncos have received mostly negative draft grades from around the NFL, but how did they do compared to Mile High Huddle's big board?

Sep 30, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) congratulates wide / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

There are various ways to evaluate a draft class, each leading to different grading results. The Denver Broncos' post-draft grades from around the web have been diverse.

While some place the Broncos among the worst due to their perceived first-round reach, others see them as having generally done well. My evaluation process is comprehensive, considering how the team's picks are valued against my big board going into the draft.

I also extend this analysis to the consensus big board, where multiple rankings from credible publications around the web are compiled to rank the top 300 players. This approach reveals where I diverge from or align with the consensus. 

Some of the discrepancies you'll read are due to the number of ranked prospects. The consensus board is limited to 300, while my board has almost 400 players. When an unranked player gets drafted, he always sits with a value of 301 on the consensus board or 383 on my board. There are many reasons for the discrepancy between the two. 

Letter grades are fine, but one pick can completely destroy a grade. Plus, letter grades put a premium on the number of high picks you have. Even with a simple analysis into where a player went vs. where he was graded, you get a better sense of how each team did. So, with that said, let’s get into the Broncos' draft class.

While this will focus on the Broncos and the AFC West, you can check out the full 2024 draft valuation sheet here, which examines the draft haul of all 32 teams. 

Bo Nix | QB | Pick 12, Round 1

Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws against the Liberty / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

As the No. 12 overall pick, Nix represented negative value, meaning he was a reach based on both my board and the consensus board. He ranked as my 50th overall player, meaning a -38 value, whereas the consensus board had him 38th for a -26 value. However, Nix wasn’t the biggest reach for either board. 

I can’t speak for the consensus board, but I understand Denver's necessity to snag a quarterback at 12. Neither board is team-specific; if it were, Nix likely would’ve been higher than he was.

There are at least 20 players who wouldn’t been on my board in a Broncos-specific ranking, and that's off the top of my head without really looking into it. Once the Atlanta Falcons took Washington QB Michael Penix Jr, who was a reach against both boards as well, Nix became easier to stomach with the 12th overall pick, especially when head coach Sean Payton loves him. 

Jonah Elliss | Edge | Pick 76, Round 3

Oct 14, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes defensive end Jonah Elliss (83) plays against / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

This is a player where the consensus board and I don’t align. Elliss was the 79th overall player on the consensus board for a -3 value, but he was my 104th overall player for a -28 value.

Elliss was still a reach on both boards, but a smaller one for the consensus. If I made my board Broncos-specific, Elliss wouldn't have been on it because he's more of what team already has at edge, plus he has medical concerns.

But that obviously would’ve been a mistake. When it comes to Denver's seven-player draft class, Elliss was the closest-graded pick relative to the consensus board based on where he was drafted. 

Troy Franklin | WR | Pick 102, Round 4

Nov 24, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) catches a pass for / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Both boards love this pick. Franklin is the most valued player for both boards, meaning he fell lower than he was ranked.

Franklin was my 62nd overall player, which means he was a +40 value, and the consensus board had him 39th, right behind Nix, for a +63 value. I've noticed a trend over the past few years. The Broncos reach in the first three rounds against each board but take fallers early on Day 3. 

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Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Pick 145, Round 5

The consensus board was higher on Abrams-Draine than I was, but he was a faller against each board. He was my 127th player and the 94th on the consensus board, so going at 145 overall leads to a +18 and +51 value, respectively. 

Audric Estimé | RB | Pick 147, Round 5

Estimé is the opposite of Abrams-Draine in that I had him slightly higher on my board than the consensus board (115 to 117). He represents a +32 value against my board and +30 against the consensus board.

Unfortunately, the final two picks ended up being reaches against each board. 

Devaughn Vele | WR | Pick 235, Round 7

Vele was the lowest value and biggest reac against each board. He was a -98 value against my board, as I had him ranked No. 333 overall, while the consensus had him at 283 for a -48 value. 

Nick Gargiulo | IOL | Pick 256, Round 7

Surprisingly, Gargiulo was my closest graded player to where he went for the Broncos. He was my 260th overall player and went at No. 256, for a -4 value. Gargiulo wasn’t on the consensus board, so it ended with a value of 301 by default, leading to a -45. 

Broncos Draft Class Based on Value: 11th Overall

Compared to the rest of the NFL, the Broncos had the 11th-best value draft class on my board, and the seventh-best against the consensus board. That's a pretty good position to be in with two top-100 picks. Unfortunately, it still puts Denver in third place in the AFC West. 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs. KC ranked first in value against my board and second against the consensus board. Jaden Hicks was the most valued pick against both boards, with C.J. Hanson the least valued pick. 

Los Angeles Chargers: L.A. ranked eighth rank against my board and fifth against the consensus board. Both boards had Brenden Rice as the most valued pick, Tarheeb Still as the least valued, and Joe Alt as the fifth overall prospect. 

Las Vegas Raiders: They ranked 20th against my board, but the consensus board ranked them 12th in value. Dylan Laube was my 208th player and went 208th, while Delmar Glaze was the lowest-value pick and MJ Devonshire was the most-valued for me. Meanwhile, the consensus had Laube as the most valued, but agreed with Glaze as the lowest value. 

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