Broncos Land No. 1 Overall Pick in Blockbuster Bears Trade Proposal
As per tradition, the week of practices at the Senior Bowl ignited a few new rumors, a couple of which were of the blockbuster nature relative to the Denver Broncos. For the first time, the name of Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II was floated as legit trade chip the Broncos might be willing to use in a Draft Day trade-up, if it meant landing one of the Big Three quarterbacks in the 2024 class.
However, the Broncos dealing away Surtain would only be a last resort to sweeten an already heavily laden trade package. Currently holding the No. 12 overall pick, if head coach Sean Payton truly has his heart set on one of the Big Three, it very well may come to that.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell examined the Broncos' situation recently to deduce what a feasible trade package with the Chicago Bears would look like to move up to No. 1 overall. Unsurprisingly, Barnwell concluded that including Surtain is Denver's best hope — and even then, like Bon Jovi, Payton and company would be living on a prayer as the Bears aren't expected to trade the pick.
The Broncos are already missing years of draft capital and are down multiple picks in this draft, so they almost have to include players to move up from No. 12 to No. 1. The only player who would move the needle is star cornerback Pat Surtain II, who might seem like a luxury in a defense that plays as much zone as the Bears.
Chicago might also not want to pay two cornerbacks as much as Surtain and Jaylon Johnson will combine to get on their next contracts, but if Eberflus wants to field the NFL's best defense, getting a top-three cornerback isn't going to hurt.
Proposed trade for the No. 1 pick: Surtain, pick No. 12 and 2025 second- and third-round picks.
The one thing the Broncos would have going for them in Barnwell's proposed trade package is the fact that the Bears opted to keep defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus. The lure of landing arguably the NFL's best young cornerback would be strong, if it also included additional trade capital.
However, in order for the Surtain arithmetic to add up for Eberflus, the Bears would have to decide to give 2021 first-rounder Justin Fields one last go-round as the starting quarterback. And there's no guarantee that'll happen.
After all, the Bears worked hard to qualify for the No. 1 overall pick, and it's a rare opportunity to have the pick of an entire draft litter, especially for a quarterback-needy team. If the Bears don't give up on Fields, then it becomes about bolstering the roster with blue-chip players to help him win.
Adding Surtain to Chicago's defense would certainly help in such an effort, and combined with the draft capital Barnwell also includes in his prospective trade, Eberflus would have a few more premium darts to throw in 2025.
Still, it seems like Barnwell's trade proposal is a little light on the first-round side of things. It's hard to imagine Chicago trading out of No. 1 overall without garnering at least a pair of first-rounders, even if an All-Pro-caliber player like Surtain was added as a sweetener.
Here's perhaps a more plausible trade package for Denver to swap with Chicago:
Proposed trade for the No. 1 pick: Surtain, pick No. 12, a 2025 first- and third-round pick.
Maybe next year's second-rounder would be required, but if Denver was giving up its 2025 first-rounder, it might not. For Payton and Broncos GM George Paton to feel comfortable relinquishing that much draft capital, they'd have to be as close to certain that the QB they're targeting was a lock to be a franchise guy.
On the heels of back-to-back offseasons where the Broncos dealt away multiple first and second-round draft picks to acquire Russell Wilson and Payton's coaching rights, many fans are understandably gunshy about selling the farm again, as it were.
However, the bitter truth is that all the Patrick Surtains, Von Millers, Justin Simmonses, and Courtland Suttons aren't enough to move the Broncos' needle. Without a bonafide franchise guy, this team will remain in NFL purgatory, aimlessly wandering the quarterback desert.
A true franchise quarterback is the tide that raises all ships. Most Broncos fans are old enough to remember how Peyton Manning's arrival vaulted a heretofore middling Demaryius Thomas into a perennial Pro Bowler — and the same goes for many of his offensive linemen.
Eric Decker went from having barely more than 700 receiving yards over two years to a 1,000-yard receiver with double-digit touchdowns just in Year 1 with Manning. Tight end Julius Thomas went from a figure on the roster fringes to catching 24 touchdown passes over two years and back-to-back Pro Bowl nods.
The Houston Texans are a contemporary example of how a young franchise QB can not only float all the boats around him but also completely alter the destiny of a previously down-and-out club. C.J. Stroud turned Tank Dell and Nico Collins into household names and elevated the Texans to an AFC South crown and a playoff berth in Year 1.
If the Broncos are throwing in the towel on Wilson, Payton has to get his guy — at nearly any cost. Damn the torpedos. The Broncos are dead in the water until they find their franchise QB, and the odds tell us that guy isn't walking through the door via NFL free agency.
There's no such thing as a free-agent franchise QB, after all. The Mannings of the world are the exceptions that prove the rule.
But USC's Caleb Williams could be. UNC's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels are also in the running as future franchise guys. If Barnwell's trade package ended up in as a real-world possibility, the Broncos would get first dibs.
Williams sure would look good in Orange and Blue, and rumors out of Mobile claim Payton loves him.
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