3 Keys to a Broncos Wildcard Victory Over Bills

Here's how the Denver Broncos shock the world in Upstate New York.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen congratulates receiver Khalil Shakir on his touchdown catch. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

Renewed energy and hopeful spirits have run high all week after the Denver Broncos clinched a playoff berth. Fans and media members alike rejoiced as the Broncos punched their ticket to the league’s postseason tournament for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015.

This Sunday, the AFC's No. 7-seeded Broncos travel to Upstate New York for their most challenging test this season, with a Wildcard playoff game against the No. 2-seeded Buffalo Bills. The last time Buffalo played most of its starters playing meaningful reps was in Week 17’s blowout win against the New York Jets. Quarterback Josh Allen reached his 115th consecutive start in the season finale before being pulled from the game as a precaution.

Not too many folks are giving the Broncos a viable shot at beating the Bills let alone competing with them, according to most of the oddsmakers and sportsbooks that are projecting a blowout win for Buffalo.

Instead of worrying about the outcome or the lopsided nature of the teams, on paper, I prefer to lean on optimism and excitement, as Denver truly has nothing to lose in this game. Remember, the Broncos weren’t supposed to be here with rookie quarterback Bo Nix and head coach Sean Payton just one season removed from an ugly divorce with Russell Wilson. 

Yet, the Broncos have a chance to play spoiler in Buffalo and can ruin Allen’s MVP candidacy with an upset win against a Bills team that could be overlooking them. What will it take to win?

Let’s review three keys to a Broncos victory in Buffalo.

Seal Team Nix: Bo Must Shine by Air or Ground

For the first time since 2018, Broncos Country doesn’t have to feel bitterness or jealousy when it comes to facing Allen. Considered by many as the one who got away from then-GM John Elway after playing up the road in college at Wyoming, Denver has borne witness to the greatness of No. 17, who remains 2-1 all-time against the Broncos. 

Nix is the featured main act in Denver and is quite literally the biggest reason for an unsuspecting franchise turnaround that has earned the Broncos a playoff spot on the road in Buffalo. Continuing to shatter rookie passing records and earning multiple NFL weekly awards, is it any wonder Nix continues to be the straw that stirs Denver’s orange drink? After all, the 24-year-old playmaker boasts a 66.3 completion percentage with 3,775 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions in 17 games. 

Nix's mobility as a rusher has been equally impressive, totaling 430 rushing yards and averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He’s tied with Broncos running back Javonte Williams for the most rushing scores this season (four), in addition to earning a team-high 41 first downs on the ground.

This week in Buffalo, I’m praying that Payton will unleash the legs of Denver’s dual-threat QB as the Bills defense is particularly vulnerable against the run, and features some dangerous pass rushers.

Nix will have to contend with the Bills' leading sacker, Greg Rousseau (eight), who’s also the team’s leader in tackles for a loss (16). Opposite him is fellow defensive end A.J. Epenesa, who’s tied with Von Miller for the second-most sacks (six) in a tough and complex defensive scheme led by Bills head coach Sean McDermott. 

Let’s not forget that Nix also earned his first and only receiving score back in Week 9, reminding us of his ultra-athletic ability and Payton’s willingness to dial up a trick play for his guy. 

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Allen’s Town: Broncos’ DL Aims to Derail Allen

Allen’s 2024 campaign has been stellar. He’s the frontrunner candidate alongside Lamar Jackson for this year’s MVP award.

The 6-foot-5, 237-pound Allen is already credited with three Pro Bowls and second-team All-Pro honors in his seventh year. He's thrown for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns, with six interceptions this season.

Allen has also earned 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, with 52 first downs with his legs. He has played bully-ball for most of the season against his opponents. 

Allen is a mammoth QB to bring to the turf and boasts strength that can rival that of veteran defensive linemen, making him the top priority for Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s squad this week. 

But what happens when you fight fire with fire, or combat Allen with another Allen? 

Broncos defensive end Zach Allen is having the best season of his NFL career boasting a career-high 8.5 sacks and 32 solo tackles in 16 games played this season. He was named a second-team All-Pro on Friday, joining four other Broncos.

Zach, who was reunited with Joseph after their time with the Arizona Cardinals, has been one of Denver’s most consistent pass rushers this season, landing 40 QB hits on his opponents. 

For reference, there are only five players with 40 or more QB hits since 2006 including Allen. He’s in stellar company with former Cards teammate J.J. Watt, who did it four times in his career, T.J. Watt (2020), Nick Bosa (2022), and Aaron Donald (2018).

Allen's high motor and exceptional cardio have directly contributed to the Broncos’ franchise record of 63 total sacks in 17 games and one must imagine that Denver will aim to add to its running total this Sunday. 

Snubbed from the Pro Bowl and listed as an alternate, Allen continues to play with a Mile High-sized chip on his shoulder and will be looking to hit, sack, and bother the Bills' most valuable playmaker. 

Best on Best: PS2 Ought to Shadow Shakir

There used to be a time when folks would debate who the best cornerback in the NFL was, but not anymore as Patrick Surtain II remains the frontrunner for the Defensive Player of the Year. 

Against the five Pro Bowl pass-catchers he’s faced this season, including Zay Flowers, Jerry Jeudy, Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Kelce, and Brock Bowers, Surtain has only allowed 16 total targets and six receptions for 56 yards on 92 routes. Additionally, PS2 secured two interceptions and didn’t allow a single receiving touchdown among a handful of the NFL’s absolute best. 

It’ll be imperative for PS2 to blanket the Bills' leading receiver, Khalil Shakir. The 24-year-old has been Allen’s favorite weapon this season, targeting the third-year veteran 100 times, 43 more than Buffalo’s second-leading receiver, rookie Keon Coleman. 

In 15 games this season, Shakir has recorded 76 receptions for 821 yards and four touchdowns, averaging a whopping 10.8 yards per catch. He also leads the Bills with 35 first downs, only fumbling the ball once this season. A smaller but similar build to Chase at 6-foot-0, 190 pounds, Shakir has a momentous chemistry with Allen as the two have played together since 2022. 

Opposite of PS2, Broncos cornerback Riley Moss will likely draw the matchup of Coleman, which should be intriguing and competitive, leaving many to wonder who’ll cover five-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper. 

In mid-October, Cooper was dealt to the Bills by the Cleveland Browns and has played in eight games for Buffalo, recording four starts, 20 receptions, 297 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 14 first downs.

Sunday will be another all-hands-on-deck approach from the Broncos secondary, demonstrating strength in numbers with a cornerback rotation that has included rookie Kris Abrams-Draine and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian. It’s interesting to note that Broncos cornerback Damari Mathis is on this week’s injury report with a back issue, as his status remains to be seen for this weekend.

Generational cornerbacks don’t come along very often, but when they do, it’s critical for them to be peaking at the most opportune time, like in a Wildcard playoff tilt in Buffalo. My money’s on Surtain to win this matchup as Allen continues his quest for a receiver worthy of his caliber.

Give ‘em hell, boys! 

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