Mile High Metrics: Broncos Must Force More Takeaways Down the Stretch to Make Playoffs
Beyond scoring, the Denver Broncos can do one thing down the stretch of this season that will ensure a playoff berth: increase takeaways. In fact, if the Broncos can finish out the season averaging two takeaways per game and keep their current +1 turnover margin, they're virtually guaranteed to be playing postseason football.
Turnovers are a significant indicator of winning in the NFL. From 2009-2018, teams that won the turnover battle won 82% of the time. Since 2005, only 68 of 512 teams failed to make the playoffs when they had a positive turnover differential and collected at least 25 takeaways.
The Broncos currently rank 18th in the league in takeaways with 13. Denver's current rate of forcing turnovers isn’t going to cut it.
The offense is doing well in keeping the ball out of the hands of the opponent, but the Broncos really need both metrics to hit the above thresholds in order to have ultimate, lasting success. The onus is on the defense.
In order to reach the 25-takeaway threshold that nearly promises a playoff berth, the Broncos would need to force at least two turnovers per game. If Denver maintained its positive +1 turnover margin while doing so, it would mean the team won the turnover battle in nearly every game.
Since the Broncos need to finish with at least four more wins to have a chance of getting into the playoffs, they're going to need to finish well in the takeaway category.
The issue is simple, defensive backs Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain II are the only two starters on defense who are taking the ball away. Simmons is on pace to top his personal record for interceptions in a season and Surtain just had two huge picks last week.
The only other defenders with an interception is rookie safety Caden Sterns with two and safety Kareem Jackson with one. Much maligned cornerback Kyle Fuller has never finished a season without an interception and he is on pace for zero this year.
The other problem is that the Broncos' defense can’t force fumbles. After trading away Von Miller, the team can’t get to the quarterback often enough to cause those precious sack-fumbles. The Broncos have only forced four fumbles all season, recovering three, which ranks them 29th in the league.
Bradley Chubb returning to the lineup may help the cause. He is the team’s best pass rusher when he is at full health and may force a fumble or two. He should definitely hasten the opposing quarterback into some errant throws which the likes of Simmons and Surtain can exploit.
The fact is, the Broncos have to be more aggressive on defense and not drop sure interceptions over these last six games. All opportunities must be seized for the team to get to the postseason. Kicking off this trend in Kansas City would be a terrific start.
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