Examining What the Nathaniel Hackett Hire Means for Broncos QB Drew Lock

Drew Lock has become a polarizing figure in Broncos Country. His ability to quarterback the Denver Broncos is argued at length.

Now that the Broncos have fired the regime that he was brought in with and hired a new head coach, what's next for the quarterback who was once the great hope to solve this team's carousel?

When Nathaniel Hackett was introduced as the 18th head coach in Broncos history, Lock’s name did not come up during the press conference, but the attention of fans and analysts alike is squarely focused on who will be the team's quarterback with Hackett at the helm.

If Lock was in the future plans, it would have been likely that Hackett would have addressed that specifically. That doesn’t bode well for Lock's future with the team.

Hackett's QB Ideals

The new head coach did at least address the quarterback issue when he described the two most important traits a signal-caller can possess which he pinpointed as “toughness and intelligence.” This provides little clarity.

Both intangible traits are difficult to define or quantify, but we can compare what we know about those qualities to what Lock has shown in his first three seasons in the NFL. Hackett described toughness as the ability to get up from the type or massive hits that a QB takes during a season.

Lock's Durability

Frankly, Lock has not been durable. He missed all but five games his rookie season due to a thumb injury in the preseason. When he was given the keys to the offense fully in 2020, he missed two games due to a shoulder injury early in the season.

Injuries happen and it is impossible to say Lock isn’t tough because of the injuries he has suffered. However, he can be compared to other quarterbacks.

Lock has been sacked 33 times in three seasons and has missed significant time while Russell Wilson has been sacked 427 times for a whopping 43 per season in Seattle and has only missed two games. Obviously, Wilson is more durable than the average quarterback, but if Hackett is looking for toughness, the Seahawks' QB is the definition.

Lock's Intelligence

Intelligence is possibly harder to get a handle on than toughness. Does Hackett really mean intellect, as in IQ? That's doubtful because a high IQ doesn’t necessarily equal smarts on the football field.

If it did, one would only have to point to Lock’s Wonderlic score of 26 and say he has just above average intelligence. Hackett most likely means football IQ, which is incredibly hard to define. Being able to pick up an offense, read defenses, and football study could characterize this trait.

Lock missed half of his rookie preseason and couldn’t practice until after the midway point, but was able to pick up then-OC Rich Scangarello’s system. He then missed all of training camp his second season due to COVID restrictions and was able to pick up then-OC Pat Shurmer’s playbook.

Lock can read defenses, but not consistently and it shows up on gameday. Reports indicate that he has been putting in study time to improve, even picking the great Peyton Manning’s brain.

Lock's work ethic has rarely been doubted. He hasn't had a great start to his career with all the obstacles so it's difficult to judge whether his football smarts are what Hackett desires.

Clouded Picture of the Future

This doesn’t paint a wonderful picture of Lock’s future under the new regime. If the Broncos miss out on the big names in trade and free agency, they're still likely to bring in a veteran option. If Lock were to end up starting in 2022, he would be on an extremely short leash.

Even though it is difficult to predict Lock’s future, there is a quarterback whose career can be used as a proxy. In fact, Lock's career has been remarkably parallel to this signal-caller.

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Lock vs. Henne

That quarterback is Chad Henne. Similar to Lock, when Henne was coming out of Michigan, he was described as having a strong arm and all the physical tools but needed to be better when he was under pressure. Henne also needed development because he wasn’t NFL-ready quite yet. Sound familiar?

Once thought of as a Round 1-caliber QB and, though Henne had played at Michigan in a pro-style offense, teams didn’t take a chance on him in the first round. He was taken in the second round because he needed that development.

Lock was also taken in the second round because he needed time, too. However, Lock didn’t have the advantage of operating a pro-style offense in college.

The parallels don’t stop there. Henne was stuck behind the veteran incumbent, Chad Pennington, as a rookie, garnering very little playing time. However, in his second season, Henne got the start because Pennington went down with an injury after struggling.

Henne tantalized with his potential early. He had a decent first start and then had a masterful game in his second. He fell back to Earth quickly with a horrendous showing in the next game.

Henne showed some of what he was capable of in two more games to get people back on board, but overall, it was an inconsistent effort that season.

Lock went through something similar as a rookie, although with a smaller sample size. Joe Flacco went to injured reserve midseason and Lock was in the starting lineup in Week 13.

Lock started out with a decent debut and then, like Henne, was amazing in his second game. People saw all that raw potential.

Then Lock too came crashing down to Earth with a dreadful performance the very next game. He bounced back in the final two games, winning them both, but his performance, overall, was inconsistent.

Then came Year 2 as a starter for both QBs. Henne had an awful season. Adjusted for era, it was the 101st-worst for a player who was in his first or second qualifying season as a QB since 1960 (including the AFL).

Something to remember is that Henne had Dan Henning as his offensive coordinator. Some have opined that Henning may have been in the top-10 worst at calling an offense while he was in Miami.

Lock’s second season was bad. Adjusted for era, 2020 was the 31st-worst for a player who was in his first or second qualifying season as QB since 1960 (including the AFL). Like Henne, Lock had a poor play-caller, too, in Shurmer.

Henne got another shot to start his third season, but started out 0-4 and was injured in the fourth game. He went to injured reserve, but would have likely been replaced during the season by his backup anyway, based on how he had performed to start the season.

The regime changed in Miami and Henne was not kept the following season. He was given another chance in Jacksonville, but failed as a starter. He has settled in as a backup quarterback, playing sparingly.

Lock didn’t get the same shot to start in his third season. The Broncos instead brought in Teddy Bridgewater and he ended up winning the starting role.

Had Lock gotten the chance to start from the onset, he would have been on a very short leash. He did take the reigns late in the season after Bridgewater was injured and was serviceable, but went 0-3 as a starter and was again inconsistent.

Bottom Line

The 2022 season has yet to start so it is difficult to foretell Lock’s future. Hackett and GM George Paton could surprise everyone and give Lock a chance to redeem himself.

It could end up being sweet redemption if Lock can improve his performance consistently. Entering the final year of his rookie contract does help his chances of sticking around.

The likely outcome is that Hackett and Paton will bring in their guy. Sometimes circumstances are cruel for no apparent reason and perhaps Lock has been a victim of them.

He is probably not in the Broncos' future plans. Lock may get another chance with a different team, but his future outlook in Denver is not promising.

Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL.

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