Bo Nix's Next Contract Just Got More Expensive for the Broncos

During the 2027 NFL league year, the 2024 quarterback draft class will be eligible for extensions. Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is among those players.

It's no secret that those quarterbacks in line for extensions could impact each other's negotiations, depending on which one signs a new deal first.

But those talks could also be impacted by other quarterbacks. We've previously discussed quarterbacks from the 2023 draft class and certain players whose deals will expire after the 2026 season.

However, quarterbacks with a year or more left on their contracts could also come into play. One such case is Patrick Mahomes, who signed a new seven-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs while the 10-year deal he signed back in 2020 still had several years left.

And another case would be Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. In 2027, he will enter the final year of a five-year deal he signed back in 2023.

Let's examine these two veterans and see how Mahomes' deal might come into play for the 2024 quarterbacks, including Nix, who is eligible for an extension next year, and how Jackson could factor in as well in his contract negotiations.

The Mahomes Impact

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Much ado was made about the money Mahomes got in his deal, but the total amounts most have reported include the money he was already set to make this year. Over The Cap's Jason Fitzgerald has valued it as a seven-year extension for $448 million, or $64 million per year.

To be sure, Mahomes did become the highest-paid player in the NFL with his new contract. The $64M APY indicates that the Chiefs didn't see Dak Prescott's $60M APY as an outlier, whereas other teams who extended their quarterbacks did.

However, average-per-year salary isn't the only factor to consider. Full and total guarantees matter.

In Mahomes' case, he got $93.5M in full guarantees, but his contract includes $30M in roster bonuses each year, which become fully guaranteed a year earlier if he's on the roster by the fifth day of the NFL league year.

In terms of full guarantees, Mahomes didn't reset the bar, as Josh Allen has the most at $147M. From a practical standpoint, though, Mahomes could be in line to collect a considerable amount of money.

Mahomes does carry significant cap charges in the coming seasons, so the Chiefs are certain to restructure his deal to convert roster bonuses and possibly portions of his base salaries into a signing bonus each year, so long as he continues to play well.

Thus, the main factor in this contract for the quarterback market is the APY salary. The structure may not come into play, though, because the Chiefs prefer the roster bonus route over the option bonus route used by other teams.

The Jackson Impact

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) prior to the game against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium. | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Jackson had his contract restructured this season, with the Ravens converting $49.5M of his base salary into a signing bonus. He received a signing bonus in 2023, then had option bonuses in 2024 and 2025 that were both exercised.

The end result is that Jackson, who has three void years in his contract for cap purposes, would carry a $42.47M dead-money charge in 2028 unless he's extended. Thus, the Ravens have good reason to get him extended unless his play sharply declines.

However, the Ravens might not be able to wait until 2028 to do that because of Jackson's 2027 cap charge. His cap charge will be $84.34M — way too high a number for the Ravens to justify.

A restructure is possible, but that would mean pushing even more money into void years and increasing a potential dead-money hit. Thus, the Ravens might believe it's better to just extend Jackson in 2027 rather than restructure.

If this were to happen, Jackson could gain a fair amount of leverage in contract negotiations. He might be able to set the bar higher in terms of APY salary, and more importantly, in full and total guarantees.

That, in turn, would impact the price that the 2024 quarterbacks could command. If the Ravens and Jackson get a deal done, it would be in the Ravens' best interest to do so before the start of the 2027 league year and before the 2024 quarterbacks get deals done.

The Takeaway

The new contract for Mahomes is certain to impact negotiations for any Nix extension, and if the Ravens get a deal done with Jackson, that could come into play as well.

What is apparent is that any of the 2024 quarterbacks who deserve an extension are in a position to push past the $55M APY mark and perhaps approach $60M. As for full and total guarantees, Allen still sets the bar for both ($147M full, $250M total), and the 2024 class is likely to exceed that.

When it comes to the Broncos, one would expect they will use the option bonus feature in Nix's deal to keep his future cap numbers as low as possible. They aren't likely to use the roster bonus feature that the Chiefs did with Mahomes.

This is why it's not a bad idea for the Broncos to monitor their cap situation in the coming months to determine what makes the most sense. They have nearly $30M in space, but any space carried over into 2027 will help when it comes to working Nix's extension to be cap-friendly.

As for other quarterbacks, the Broncos would ideally get a deal done as quickly as possible, but they may not close one before the Ravens do Jackson. Also, keep in mind that how quickly a deal gets done depends as much on the agent as on the front office.

But the Mahomes deal showed that there are still plenty of quarterbacks who could enter the conversation when it comes to new deals — even if they have plenty of years left on their current deals. And any such deals are likely to impact what Nix gets in his next contract.

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