Breaking Down Bo Nix’s Extension Timeline and Projected Cost

The Denver Broncos face a looming financial decision on quarterback Bo Nix. In the NFL, drafted players must play three years before they're eligible for an extension, and 2026 will be Year 3 for Nix.

The Broncos' quarterback will be eligible for an extension after the 2026 season, even with two years left on his rookie contract (assuming the team exercises his fifth-year option). The Broncos have several other players entering contract years, but the upcoming Nix extension is likely to influence the team's decision-making for each.

Today, we're examining the decision points the Broncos face on the Nix extension front, including the timeline and projected cost.

Getting Ahead of the Market

The first part of this conversation is whether the Broncos want to get ahead of the market to extend Nix early, which could help them save a lot of money. Often, extensions come after the fourth year, but with how expensive quarterbacks are, the trend has been to get those deals done after Year 3.

New England's Drake Maye, Chicago's Caleb Williams, Washington's Jayden Daniels, and Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. will also be available for an extension at the same time. The first one to sign a new deal likely comes in at the lowest price, and subsequent extensions get slightly more expensive as each one is signed.

Each quarterback from the 2024 draft class is set to be a free agent in 2028, but three of those names are poised to have their fifth-year options picked up, making them free agents in 2029 instead.

In 2028, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and Daniel Jones are all set to be free agents. If the Broncos wait until after Nix’s fourth season, those quarterbacks would also be added to the list of contracts to watch, which could make Nix’s deal even more expensive.

If the Broncos want to wait until 2029, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and Jalen Hurts will be factors. This is why Denver should work at getting a Nix extension done after the 2026 season.

There are still extensions that could be done with any of the aforementioned quarterbacks, but each could be looking at a big payday. If the Broncos want to keep Nix at the most team-friendly deal, Year 3 will be the best time to pull the trigger.

Projected Cost

Bo Nix. — Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) directs the offense before the snap in the third quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs. | Scott Winters / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

With the 2026 season yet to be played, it's difficult to pinpoint Nix's exact cost, but it will likely be at least $50 million per year, which would be the 11th-highest contract on an average-per-year basis for a quarterback right now. The top of the market is now $60 million per year for Prescott, and that's going to get pushed with some of the quarterbacks in that 2028 group.

There is always risk in getting an extension done earlier rather than later, but for quarterbacks, the potential savings are worth it. One example, though it's not a quarterback, is the Broncos' deal with Patrick Surtain II, which was an NFL record for a cornerback at the time.

Now, less than two years after the Surtain extension, he is the sixth-highest-paid cornerback on an average-per-year basis, and those deals continue to get more and more expensive. The Broncos got that deal done a little early and managed to save themselves some money, with 2026 being the first year Surtain will actually play under his extension.

The Broncos got that extension with Surtain done right before the 2024 season started, so they still had the fourth and fifth years of his rookie contract to play out. And now the extension kicks in, starting in 2026.

The Takeaway

The Broncos need to take the same approach with Nix. Get the deal done after Year 3, after exercising his fifth-year option, take advantage of two more years of reasonable cost control, and then by the time he actually plays on his extension, he'll probably rank in the bottom 16 among quarterbacks.

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