3 Ways Broncos Could Beat Bills & 3 Reasons They Could Lose

The good news, the Broncos are in control of these factors, but which team has the will to win?

Dec 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back RJ Harvey (12) runs for a gain during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

There is a lot of data and elements that give the Denver Broncos an edge over the Buffalo Bills. However, the Bills are still an experienced playoff team and shouldn’t be taken lightly, especially with Josh Allen at the helm.

Looking at how the two teams match up, the Broncos have many advantages, and three could be the difference between winning and losing. 

With the Broncos winning the No. 1 seed and getting the bye week, they've earned 13 days of rest to get healthy and ready, while the Bills have been given six days, are extremely beat up, and will already be without multiple starters.

That is an advantage for Denver, but I'm talking about three other avenues to victory. Today, we'll break those down, as well as three ways the Broncos could let this game slip through their fingers if they don't batten down the hatches.

3 Reasons Broncos Could Win

Eliminating Buffalo's League-Leading Run Game

The Bills had the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense this season, while the Broncos had one of the best rushing defenses. However, both sides saw that aspect drop off after Week 9 of the season. 

While both sides regressed, the Bills dropped from first to fourth in DVOA, which is a bigger decline than it may seem, while the Broncos dropped from third to 15th. Before concern sets in, the Bills do their best in heavier sets, but the Broncos are a significantly better run defense against heavier packages. 

Denver has to make sure it can take away the run game when the Bills don’t get heavy, which allows them to keep their receiving weapons on the field. Denver has done a decent job of that this season, aside from two or three games.

With Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw healthy and ready to roll, Denver has a good shot at making the Bills play to the Broncos' strengths when it comes to the run game. It doesn’t help that the Bills are as beat up as they are at wide receiver, which could enable the Broncos to focus on the run game. 

Positive Explosives on Both Sides

Jan 4, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Ja'quan McMillian (29) runs with the ball during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Denver has struggled with explosives on both sides of the ball. On defense, I'm talking about takeaways and sacks.

To be clear, the sacks are there, but the takeaways are not, and that is partially due to the amount of man coverage the Broncos play. They also lead the league in dropped interceptions. 

The sacks have been less common since Week 11, with 22 of their 68 sacks coming in their final seven games. Allen is hard to sack, so when the Broncos get there, they have to bring him down.

However, generating pressure can force mental errors that Allen is prone to making, leading to the other defensive explosive play: interceptions. 

Offensively, the Broncos have struggled to generate explosive plays at an acceptable rate. Both the run and pass game have had their fair share of big plays, but not the number you want to see.

Denver scored its lone touchdown on an explosive play in last year's playoff game, and the Bills' defense remains susceptible to such strikes. Denver has to take advantage of that. 

A Consistent Run Game

I have written about this a lot this week, but the importance of the Broncos' offense establishing a consistent running game against the Bills cannot be overstated. The Broncos have to run it not only to help move the ball, drain the clock, and put them in positive situations, but also to force the Bills to make defensive adjustments. 

Bo Nix has struggled against Cover-2 and split-field coverages, which are the bread and butter of the Bills' defense. They leave the middle intermediate area of the field available, and attacking there isn’t Nix’s strong suit.

It also leaves the Broncos open to getting a run game going. When teams have established the run against the Bills' bread and butter coverage, they change things up, which opens the door for the passing game, especially for Nix. 

When the Bills are forced to change things up, they go to Cover-1 and Cover-3, which are the two coverages that Nix does the best against. That's when Nix and the passing game are at their most lethal, opening the door for explosives, either over the top or underneath, with yards-after-the-catch designs. 

All the data suggest the Broncos should be able to get a running game going, but the game still has to be played, and they could flub it through blocking and execution errors. With 13 days off, plenty of time to review the issues internally, and five days of preparation without travel, there is no excuse for the Broncos not to get a running game going.

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3 Reasons Broncos Could Lose

Jan 12, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) attempts to break a tackle by Denver Broncos cornerback Riley Moss (21) during the third quarter in an AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

While there is a lot that goes in the Broncos' favor, three areas could cost them this game. They should be aware of it internally, and Broncos fans should be mindful of them as well.

Let's now break down the three ways the Broncos could lose to the Bills.

Missed Tackles

The Broncos have had issues with their tackling, with their starters combining for nearly 100 missed tackles. They have five players with at least 10 missed tackles in Hufanga, Nik Bonitto, Alex Singleton, Riley Moss, and D.J. Jones. That's a concern no matter who the Broncos are playing, but it's magnified with Buffalo. 

James Cook ranks sixth in broken tackles and third in missed tackles forced this season, as does Khalil Shakir, Buffalo's top wide receiver. Then you have Allen with seven broken tackles, the most of any non-running back, and the most missed tackles forced for any non-running back. The Bills are a tough team to tackle. 

A big reason the Jacksonville Jaguars had the success they did against Denver was the defense's tackling errors, primarily by Moss, who had two in that game that led to nearly 100 additional yards. The Bills play a physical brand of football on offense, and the Broncos do defensively, so if Denver can’t match with tackling discipline, it could lead to a long day. 

Penalties

October 19, 2025: Denver Broncos cornerback Riley Moss (21) indicates incomplete as New York Giants wide receiver Beaux Collins (81) looks on in the second half of the football game between the Denver Broncos and New York Giants. The flag was for pass interference that gave the Giants the ball at the one with under 1 minute to play. | Derek Regensburger / IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

This is simple. The Broncos are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL, while the Bills are in the middle of the pack.

What makes this worse is that the Broncos are penalized more at home, while the Bills are penalized less on the road. It doesn’t help that the Broncos have given 36 automatic first downs due to penalties, not including penalties where the yardage gave their opponents a first down.

The Bills play a cleaner game, and if they can execute without penalties and Denver can’t, it obviously makes it more challenging for things to go the Broncos' way. Given how physical the Bills' offense can be, the concern is the Broncos' defense, which is the most penalized in the NFL. 

Run Game Execution

As we've covered, the Broncos have struggled to find a consistent running game since J.K. Dobbins went down in Week 10, but the data suggests they can run on the Bills. The two concepts Denver runs most are the two concepts the Bills struggle with most, and they allowed the most yards to scrambling quarterbacks in the NFL this season. 

The Bills' defense loves to live in a two-high shell, which is something Nix has struggled with, making the importance of getting a consistent running game going even greater. If the Broncos can do that, again, I like their odds against the Bills' most likely coverage counter, but they are still a well-disguised unit. 

So, if Denver can’t get the run game going and allow the Bills to sit in their two-high shells, it could lead to a rough day in which the passing game struggles, too. To put it simply, Sean Payton and this offense have to get a running game going to force the Bills to change things defensively and open things up for Nix and the passing game.

It's absolutely vital to winning this game.