Analytics Pinpoint Optimal Rounds for Broncos to Address LB, DL & S

Here's how the Denver Broncos can increase the probability of finding an impact defender on the first two days of the NFL draft.

Oct 5, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Jihaad Campbell (11) sneaks a peek into the backfield against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos need playmakers on offense, but they can't neglect the holes on defense. The Broncos will prioritize defense in some form in the upcoming NFL draft.

Targeting the best defensive players, the Broncos can use a similar analytics strategy I laid out for skills players on offense. Draft analytics are a helpful tool when analyzing players at different positions but of similar draft grades.

Here's how the Broncos should attack the draft to fill defensive holes, based on the probabilities. 

The Data

Just like rolling the dice, draft success can be enhanced by using probabilities. I've analyzed 14 years' worth of drafts and found the probabilities of selecting an 'impact player,' a 'primary starter,' and a 'miss' by round and position.

An impact player is anyone with at least one first-team All-Pro award or multiple Pro Bowl nods. A primary starter is a player who has been the starter for at least 50% of their time in the NFL. And we all know what a miss is.

The Broncos need to find an inside linebacker, a defensive tackle, and a safety to provide more firepower for a defense that played very well last season. Denver holds the 20th pick in the first round, but finding an impact player at that spot is no guarantee.

Round 1, Pick 20

The probability of selecting an impact player at any position from pick No. 16 to 20 is 0.29. That's about one in every three players drafted.

Landing a primary starter is better at 0.53, but the Broncos need to come away with an impact player at No. 20 overall, so I will focus on those probabilities. Breaking it down further, we can see what position is more likely to produce an impact player at the spot the Broncos are selecting.

By Position

Inside Linebacker: Based on the past drafts analyzed, inside linebacker has one of the highest rates (0.44) of any position selected from picks 11 to 20 to become an impact player.

Safety: Of the three defensive positions the Broncos need, safety is next with a probability of 0.33.

Defensive Line: The probability of finding an impact D-lineman at pick 20 is 0.22.

The probability indicates that taking an inside linebacker with the Broncos’ first selection gives the team the best chance of getting that needed playmaker. Unfortunately, that's only one position and the Broncos need three.

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Day 2

Examining the probabilities of Rounds 2 and 3 can build a clearer picture. There's a chance that one of these positions has a more favorable probability on Day 2 of the draft.

Where the Broncos select in Round 2 (No. 51 overall), the probability of finding an impact player at any position isn't great at 0.07. Round 3 is slightly lower at 0.05.

Of the three defensive positions of need, only inside linebacker has a probability greater than zero of becoming an impact player at Denver's spot in Round 2 (0.13). That doesn't bode well for finding that necessary star at all the positions. In fact, it's highly unlikely.

Interestingly, Round 3 has a higher probability of finding an impact player at safety and defensive line than the second half of Round 2, at 0.07 and 0.02, respectively. 

Bottom Line

Denver can use two strategies for defense in this draft. If the Broncos want to maximize their chances of getting an impact player at all three positions, they shouldn't go all in on an inside linebacker in Round 1.

Even though the interior defensive line has the lowest success probability in Round 1, the Broncos would be wise to take one because there's almost no chance of selecting an impact player at that position in Rounds 2 and 3.

In Round 2, the Broncos should take an inside linebacker and then fill the safety spot in Round 3. The other option is to go all in at linebacker in Round 1 and then let the chips fall where they may in the other rounds.

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