5 Defensive Matchups That Will Make or Break Broncos-Bills

Vance Joseph and the Broncos' defense have to win these key matchups.

Jan 12, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs for a gain during the fourth quarter as Denver Broncos defensive end Zach Allen (99) defends in an AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos' defense was one of the best in the NFL in 2024, but the Buffalo Bills ran all over them in their playoff match last year. There is no question that this prideful unit is going to go all out for revenge, but hopefully that desire doesn’t turn into recklessness. 

Despite the injuries the Bills have suffered on offense, they still have some weapons, and the types of defenses they've succeeded at attacking are what the Broncos run most frequently. There's a lot of pressure on the defense for this one, and it starts with the coaching.

Let's get into the key matchups. 

Vance Joseph vs. Joe Brady, Josh Allen, & the Pressure

There is a lot of pressure on Joseph in this game, especially as he has had a full schedule of interviews for a head-coaching job. If he wants one, he can’t fall flat in this game against the Bills, especially considering that Denver has no excuses to lose this one. 

Brady is a good offensive coordinator, and he does a great job of finding weaknesses throughout the game and adjusting to exploit them. Joseph has trouble adjusting, but he will need to do a better job there.

If Joseph and the Broncos can eliminate the Bills' running game, they'll be poised for success. 

Nik Bonitto & Jonathon Cooper vs. Dion Dawkins & Spencer Brown

Last year, the Broncos' edge defenders struggled against this tackle duo, and while Bonitto has improved since then, Cooper's play was rough over the last few weeks of the season. To be clear, the concern here is Denver's run defense on the edge, but they should have success as pass rushers. 

Both tackles combined to allow nine sacks and 77 pressures on the season, with Dawkins making the Pro Bowl. Bonitto and Allen will need to be disciplined to keep Allen in the pocket, but just as importantly, they have to be tough edge-setters against the run.

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Broncos' DL vs. Bills Interior OL

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen makes it over the line for a first down on a quarterback sneak during the first half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Again, last year, the Broncos lost inside, and it led to a long day for the defense as the Bills ran at will. The Broncos are much improved against the run this year, but they still have to execute. 

One of the issues last year was the Broncos' performance in one-on-one blocks and their inability to force double teams. They need D.J. Jones and Malcolm Roach to force those double teams inside, or take advantage of their one-on-ones to help Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers, and the linebackers.

The Bills have the second-lowest stuffed rate allowed, while the Broncos have the sixth-highest forced rate. 

Broncos' Tackling vs. Bills' Offense

The Broncos' tackling has been suspect over the last half of the season, and the Bills are a tough group to bring down. Denver has to be on point here, or it could be a long day due to leaked yardage. 

James Cook is tied for the third-most missed tackles forced for running backs, while Khalil Shakir ranks third among wide receivers. That doesn’t even count for Allen, who is the toughest quarterback to tackle in the NFL, either for a sack or as a rusher.

Broncos' Coverage vs. TEs Dawson Knox & Dalton Kincaid

The Bills have two threats at tight end, and Denver has had issues over the past few weeks in handling those tight ends. Jahdae Barron has been a key piece in that, but he has been hit-or-miss as a rookie in handling this role. 

With Shakir as the Bills' top receiver and Curtis Samuel likely coming back from injured reserve, Denver may not be able to rotate Patrick Surtain II to help with the tight ends. Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, Alex Singleton, and Jahdae Barron have to step up big time to help take the tight ends out of the game.