How Broncos' Ugly Loss to Jaguars Affects Division, Conference Races

This game had the most significant impact on the AFC playoffs of any remaining game this season.

Dec 21, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Even before the Denver Broncos took the field on Sunday vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, their ability to clinch the division and top seed in the AFC had already been taken away. The Broncos needed help to get there, and two of those games were in Sunday's early slate. 

Obviously, the Broncos had to win, but they lost to the Jaguars 34-20. The Broncos also needed the Los Angeles Chargers to lose to the Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills to lose to the Cleveland Browns. Both of those games went the other way, with the Chargers and Bills winning. 

Still in Control But No Wiggle Room

Even so, the Broncos are still in control of their own fate. Thanks to that 11-game winning streak, the Broncos have secured tiebreakers and won throughout. Even though they were unable to clinch the division and No. 1 playoff seed this week before their own game kicked off, the Broncos still had a chance to clinch on Christmas Day with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. 

However, the Broncos had to get past the Jaguars first. That didn't happen.

The Broncos entered the week needing to win two of their final three games to clinch, without relying on anyone else losing, and that remains on the table with the depleted Chiefs up next and a home stand vs. the Chargers to end the season. Winning both is the safest way to clinch the division and the top seed in the AFC, as the Broncos won’t need much help to get there. 

The bad news is that the Broncos' loss to the Jaguars means they can’t clinch the division or the No. 1 seed with a win alone against the Chiefs on Thursday night. The Broncos could still clinch with a win this week, but they would need help to do so. Losing to the Jaguars took away Denver's ability to clinch a week early without help. 

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Harnessing the Setback

Dec 21, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) meet after the game at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Given how much the Broncos have been doubted all season, stemming from how games have turned out, the loss to the Jaguars won’t change that narrative. However, the Broncos can very well turn this loss into a good thing. 

Teams can start to ride the high of winning and become complacent, which can lead to poor football in the playoffs. So, if the Broncos can take this loss and use it to refocus, especially on defense, they could turn a negative into a positive. 

However, Jacksonville's win over the Broncos put them squarely in the conversation for the AFC's top seed. So now Denver has to worry about them, with the Jaguars holding the tiebreaker, the Chargers having another game against them, and the New England Patriots and the Bills. The Broncos' loss keeps the AFC wide open.

It all comes down to what the Broncos do over their final two games against the Chiefs and the Chargers. The Broncos have to win those games.

Denver can’t put itself in a position to rely on losses for the top seed. No matter what, though, the division will come down to the season finale against the Chargers, unless the Chargers lose to the Houston Texans next week. 

Denver still controls its fate, but the playoff seeding got a lot murkier by losing to the Jaguars. This game had the most significant impact on the AFC playoffs of any remaining game this season.