Browns are Two Players Away
Even with uncertainty surrounding quarterback Deshaun Watson and the level he's able to reach at quarterback this season, the Cleveland Browns are two players away from a complete roster. So long as they can secure a starting caliber defensive tackle and another capable running back, the Browns look to have a roster without an obvious weakness.
Catastrophic injury to a few critical components, especially quarterback, is going to derail any team's hopes of competing for a championship, but the Browns have a roster that can deal with a player being out for a game or few with a couple key exceptions. Dalvin Tomlinson and Nick Chubb stand out in this respect.
The problem for the Browns is even if they sign a starting caliber three-tech defensive tackle, they still can't afford to lose Tomlinson for long. The only other pure nose they will likely have on the 53-man roster is rookie Siaki Ika, so even if they stash one on the practice squad and cannibalize their under tackle depth, it's not going to be pretty.
If Chubb goes down with injury for even a couple games, the Browns would be down to second-year running back Jerome Ford based on their current roster. There's plenty to like about Ford and the Browns have been able to muddle through a game getting production from the likes of unknown entities in the past like D'Ernest Johnson, who had a big game against the Denver Broncos in 2021.
That's a credit to the offensive line and Kevin Stefanski's ability as a play caller, though Johnson deserves credit for just how hard he ran when given opportunities. The presence of Deshaun Watson should also help, but the last time Chubb missed an extended amount of time, four games in 2020, the Browns went 2-2 with their backs averaging just 81.2 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.
Chubb averaged 5.6 yards per game that season, meaning the drop-off was 1.8 yards per carry from Chubb to his replacement. That included Kareem Hunt in his most productive year as a member of the Browns. So while the Browns can theoretically get some production out of just about anyone they hand the ball, there's a clear difference.
Maybe Jerome Ford will be great this year, but even with a withering Hunt last year, he only had eight carries which amounted to 12 yards. They need someone else in the backfield, not only to provide insurance for Chubb, but to maximize him.
During the 2022 season, critics complained Chubb didn't get the ball enough. He averaged 19.3 touches per game, which is 1.5 short of his career high 20.3 in 2019. Strangely, it wasn't a problem when Chubb averaged 17.1 touches per game in 2020. The issue wasn't Chubb's touches but the lack of a competent second option in the backfield with him.
A good second option would also increase the number of ways the Browns can attack opponents, which inherently makes the offense more dangerous. A good receiving threat would pair well with Watson. Another power back would be helpful in short yardage or running over defenses the Browns spread out. More speed could be a homerun threat as a changeup to Chubb.
Dalvin Cook is the best fit for what the Browns want to do. He excelled with the Minnesota Vikings when Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator, knows the offense and excels as a pass catcher. His price tag and the role the Browns have him for him likely makes him unrealistic and last season raised concerns about his viability going forward.
But if other teams don't want to pay him what he thinks he's worth, the Browns could be an enticing situation. A lighter workload could keep him fresher and allow him to have another great season. The Browns have better blocking and a better quarterback than the Vikings in addition to the familiarity of Stefanski's offense.
In the likely event Cook signs elsewhere, the Browns have plenty of options. Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and J.D. McKissic stand out as viable candidates. The sheer supply available makes it a buyer's market, so even as Deshaun Watson should be able to carry the offense without Chubb for a few games, the Browns have plenty of incentive not to make him prove it.
Yes, the Browns are going to pass more this season as they should, but they will play games impacted by weather and need to be able to adjust accordingly, plus they are always going to be searching for the right offensive balance. The best situation for the Browns is always to grow the pie they are dividing up and a viable second threat at running back can help achieve that even as they hope Jerome Ford grows into a good option in his own right.
25 points per game is a virtual guarantee to make the postseason (Browns scored 25.5 per game in 2020).. Another capable running back only helps in achieving that goal, in addition to getting out to leads, making the opponent one-dimensional, allowing their defense to focus on the pass and close out games.
The Browns want to be able to put Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and as many defensive backs as possible on the field as often as they can. A dominant offense can play a role, but there are going to be games where the defense will need to provide their own answers.
In order for that to happen, they need another capable starting defensive tackle, something the Browns themselves have admitted. Although defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's preferences would suggest they want another pass rusher, in which Matt Ioannidis would make sense, their stable of edge rushers makes it prudent to add another run stopper.
Opposing offenses are going to be incentivized to run the ball more against the Browns, keeping themselves on schedule and forcing the Browns defense to respect the run all three downs. The Browns must have the personnel to be able to stop the run and force obvious passing situations.
The Pittsburgh Steelers stand out within the division. However highly they think of Kenny Pickett, they don't want him consistently in third-and-long, trying to beat a Browns defense that knows what's coming. The Steelers have also been able to pound the ball up the middle, have holstered the offensive line and added to their tight end room. It's also reasonable to assume they will use tempo as a weapon, slowing the game down and attempt to keep the Browns offense off the field.
It's imperative the Browns have an answer against a team able to be that patient. Shelby Harris is the option that looks like the best fit for what the Browns want. Names like Ndamukong Suh will be thrown out, but he's 36 and didn't distinguish himself in a limited role with the Philadelphia Eagles last year.
The Browns don't want to have a player like Harris out there for 35 or 40 snaps in a game, but they need someone capable enough to handle that kind of workload, because there will be a game when they need it, which could occur in the postseason.
The plan for the Browns is to score points, get leads with a defense that can close when an opponent attempts to mount a comeback. A player like Harris would better equip the Browns for when the game doesn't go according to plan. The sheer amount of ugly games the Browns have played in suboptimal weather should make this obvious, but the Browns are going to need guys who can come in and hold the line, especially backed up on their own end.
Unless Aaron Donald becomes available, Shelby Harris is likely their best option. And should Donald be up for grabs, the Browns can probably find room for him on their defensive front too.
So much of the focus for this season has been making sure Deshaun Watson has everything he needs to be successful. Andrew Berry and the Browns have the opportunity to provide him with a complete roster, reducing the burden on him to be great immediately. If Watson can get back to being great in time for the postseason, the Browns can be as threatening as any team in the league,
