DeAndre Hopkins vs. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Inside the Numbers
Inherent in the potential acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins by the Cleveland Browns would be a corresponding trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones. Not only does Hopkins have to be better than DPJ but there needs to be enough separation between the two to warrant a significant amount of money. While there's no debate who's had the better career, DPJ's upward trend and Hopkins' downturn are going to cross. The only question is when, whether it's this year or another year or two from now.
What gets lost in the discussion of adding Hopkins versus keeping DPJ is how similar they are. Yes, Hopkins is better at the catch point and better in the red zone but simply contrasting where the players win, it's almost identical.
Both have excellent size and strength. Both excel against zone defense and extend drives.
It goes deeper.
The first conclusion coming out of this is DPJ should get the ball more. He went from 58 targets in 2021 to 96 in 2022. He should've gotten the ball more in 2022, but it took a few games for Jacoby Brissett to start looking for him regularly and he'd be running wide open and not get the ball. When Deshaun Watson took over, he targeted him 12 times against the Cincinnati Bengals, but overall was a shell of himself, which impacted the entire offense.
It's interesting that Hopkins and DPJ were both targeted 96 times. For Hopkins, it was across nine games compared to DPJ in 17. Nevertheless, here is what the two receivers did with those 96 targets.
Once again, there is plenty of similarity, though DPJ was the more efficient target, but where DPJ is important as it relates to how the Browns want their offense to function.
The Browns want to be more explosive. 14.5 percent of DPJ's targets resulted in chunk plays. Hopkins has 15 explosive plays over his last 19 games, but that required 160 targets to get there, meaning that only 9.3 percent of his plays were explosive.
Explosive plays are critical in the NFL. Drives that include an explosive play are exponentially more likely to score a touchdown. In the 2022 season, 31 of the 39 offensive touchdowns the Browns scored included an explosive play, a rate of 79.4 percent. Drives that take 15+ plays certainly happen, but they are infrequent and unreliable. More explosive plays translates to more points.
It's a major reason they acquired Elijah Moore from the New York Jets in a trade. He projects to thrive with space the rest of the offense should create for him, but he's also able to create. Having DPJ force the opponent to account for him going deep more often has an added value.
The opposite is also true. If a defense can prevent giving up explosive plays, they win. In fact, most defensive coordinators include a number as the goal for their team each week to keep the opponent from reaching. So often when the Browns defense failed last year, it was due to an explosive play either starting a drive or finishing it. Typically, when the Browns could keep the opponent in front of them, they would run out of gas and either punt or attempt a field goal. That will be one of the biggest priorities for Jim Schwartz, the team's new defensive coordinator.
The other place where DPJ creates explosive plays is as a punt returner. He found his stride last season for the Browns and returned a punt for a touchdown last season. On the season, he returned 18 punts at an average of 12.39 yards. The goal for a special teams unit is to get at least 10, so new special teams coach Bubba Ventrone isn't eager to see a great option walk out the door.
If Deshaun Watson can reclaim the form he showed with the Houston Texans, Hopkins would likely put up better numbers than he did the past two seasons with the Arizona Cardinals. So would DPJ. The difference is that DPJ is 24 and Hopkins is 31 and has already lost a step.
The most compelling argument to go with Hopkins might be trading DPJ now as opposed to waiting for a compensatory pick. If a team is willing to give up a fourth-round pick in 2024 as opposed to potentially getting a fourth-round comp pick in 2025, that's clearly the better value. That assumes the Browns plan to let DPJ walk after this year. Certainly possible, it's hardly a guarantee.
DPJ is set to earn $2.79 million this season, little of which is guaranteed. If he were signed to a new contract and the Browns simply follow the trend they have with most of their extensions, they will minimize the cap figure in 2024. In other words, DPJ would have a minimal cap number for the next two seasons before any real money would be on the books.
Amari Cooper's contract is set to end after 2024. There are other moves the Browns could also make such as trading guard Wyatt Teller, corner Denzel Ward or running back Nick Chubb which would free up additional cap space. They could end up keeping some or all of those players. DPJ in the last year of his contract gives the Browns plenty of options.
While the Browns might end up with more draft assets trading DPJ now, they reduce their adjustable cap space going forward. The Browns can easily afford Hopkins if that's the path they want to pursue. However, money spent on Hopkins now is money they don't have next year which could be used to continue adding to this roster, allowing them to make a move like they did in acquiring Za'Darius Smith. That is what enables them to be spending the most on their roster in the NFL while still having flexibility to operate.
Watson recently said of a possible reunion with Hopkins, "Of course, we would love to have him. He knows that." There's no reason to doubt that's true, but it's being treated by some as Watson attempting to put it out in public in order to put pressure on the team to act on it. That's certainly one way to look at it, but what else is Watson going to say? Avoiding the question would've said something, so he was proactive.
The Browns, as an organization, aren't in the business of stopping anyone from discussing players wanting to play in Cleveland. It's great advertising for them as they continue to change the perception of the franchise. There is excitement on the team and among the new additions. Watson knows that as much as anyone else. So while he may love the idea of Hopkins playing in Cleveland, he is savvy enough to understand what generating buzz about players wanting to play for the Browns is a worthwhile endeavor.
Even if Watson is adamant that he wants Hopkins, the Browns are most likely going to let Hopkins price himself out of their range because even as Donovan Peoples-Jones is unlikely to reach the heights DeAndre Hopkins did in the prime of his career, he's close to the current version. If someone was going to look for the budget version of 31-year old Hopkins, it's Donovan Peoples-Jones.
