Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders Betting guide: How to bet the Week 12 matchup

Viva Las Vegas! The Browns enter Sin City looking to prove a point. Last week ended on a disastrous note, and rookie QB Shedeur Sanders did not look ready for his NFL debut. Now, Sanders gets a full week of first-team reps and a soft opponent in a controlled environment.

The Browns are four-point road underdogs, and the game has a very low total of 36. If you like the Browns to win outright, you can get that for +165.

Despite their 2-8 record, the Raiders, much like the Browns, have a defense that keeps them in games. Geno Smith is the NFL interception leader, and he gets a stout Browns defense this week. On the other side, Sanders gets his first start, on the road, against a defense that has Maxx Crosby. Sanders showed signs of pocket struggles last week, getting sacked twice on 16 attempts.

The first place to look, as is the case for almost every Browns game, is the ground attack. Quinshon Judkins remains the clear number one back.

Judkins has lost some efficiency as the year has gone on, though. Last week against Baltimore, Judkins had 59 yards on 17 carries. That is 3.5 yards per carry. Against a weak Jets team, Judkins had 75 yards on 22 carries, averaging out to 3.4 yards per rush.

He averaged 2.1 before his injury against the Patriots, 3.4 against the Dolphins (despite his three touchdowns), and 3.0 against the Steelers. His last significant output came against the Vikings in London, where he had 110 yards on 23 carries, an average of 4.8 a pop.

This week, Judkins goes up against a top-15 rush defense that performs better at home. Judkins will face stacked boxes, daring Shedeur to throw the ball. Right now, Judkins’ rushing prop is 70.5 yards, a number reached just twice in the last five games.

Despite all the regression Judkins has faced in recent weeks, this is a spot where he can get right. Sure, the Raiders' defense is stronger against the run than the pass.

He will definitely face stacked boxes. But Judkins is a strong back that can break arm tackles and has shown bursts of speed to break through into the secondary and beyond. If Sanders can complete some passes from a clean pocket, holes will open up for Quinshon.

The attempts will be there, with Vegas setting his line at 18.5 carries. If you believe Judkins will positively regress regarding his yards per carry, he should sail over 70.5 yards if he gets 19 carries.

The sportsbooks are not putting any respect on Shedeur Sanders this week. He has lines comparable to Justin Fields (which is bad). His passing yards are set at 159.5. His attempts are set at 28.5 and his completions at 16.5. If he completes 17 passes on 29 attempts, that's hardly a 58% completion percentage.

The Raiders are near the bottom ten in the NFL when it comes to opponent passing yards a game. As mentioned before, the boxes will be stacked to stop the run. Sanders will have ample opportunity to find his receivers in favorable matchups both on the outside and over the middle.

There are a lot of unknowns this week for the Browns. Will Sanders look bad again? Will Sanders benefit from first-team reps all week? Will Sanders be able to avoid pressure and get the ball out of his hands? If Sanders can put together a respectable performance, not only will he shut up his haters, but he will put the Browns in a great spot to win this game.

The Browns could very easily win this game; it just comes down to Sanders taking care of the ball. We already know Myles Garrett and the defense will be ready to play against a weak Raiders offense.

Getting the four points is an enticing look, but if you are feeling frisky, that +165 moneyline price is even more enticing. This is a prove-it spot for Kevin Stefanski, Shedeur Sanders, and the entire Browns team, coming off a deflating loss on the road in Baltimore.