Analytics model predicts where the Browns will be selecting in 2026 NFL Draft

According to ESPN's FPI, Cleveland has a very good chance of finding all quarterback prospects available when being put on the clock in the first round.

Apr 25, 2025; Green Bay, WI, USA; The main stage on second day of the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Wm. Glasheen/USA Today Network via Imagn Images | Wm. Glasheen-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Browns are one step closer to guaranteeing themselves their choice of quarterback prospects once the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft comes around.

After falling against the previously one-loss New York Jets last weekend, the Browns would be selecting fourth if the season ended today, a two position climb from the week before.

However, ESPN’s Football Power Index’s model is projecting Cleveland to end with a much higher pick. According to FPI’s model, which simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times each week, the Browns would be picking second overall.

Using the FPI’s algorithms, the Browns average draft position after those 10,000 simulations is 3.4, only behind the Tennessee Titans 2.9 average draft position. What’s more, the Browns also possess the second highest probabilities of landing the first overall pick according to the model at 26.9 percent. Once again, they only trail the Titans, who are given a 36.6 percent chance of picking first for the second straight year. Tennessee is the only one-win team remaining in the league.

Coming in below the Browns, ESPN’s FPI predicts the Jets, New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders rounding out the Top-5, in that order.

Ironically, the Browns’ schedule still includes a visit to the Raiders in Week 12, and a home game against the Titans in Week 14. Meanwhile the Titans, who already fell to the Raiders, are due to host the Saints in Week 17, one week after the Jets visit New Orleans.

With so many games left to be played, many of them between the five teams currently projected to pick in the first five positions of the first round, there’s a lot yet to be determined in terms of selection order. However, the Titans -- and possibly the Saints -- are set to pass on the quarterback position in the first round, elevating Cleveland’s chances of making the first quarterback pick of the entire draft.

Tennessee took Cam Ward first overall last year, and New Orleans is kicking the tires on their second-round rookie Tyler Shough.

Further down the ladder, ESPN’s model predicts the Jaguars holding an average draft position of 18.2 after those 10,000 simulations, which would slot them at 17th. This is relevant to Cleveland, since the Browns own the Jaguars’ first round pick in 2026, thanks to a draft-day trade from this year. The Football Power Index’s model only gives the Browns a 5.1 percent probability of the Jags’ pick creeping inside the Top-10.

The Browns are currently mired in a mess of a season where neither rookie third-rounder Dillon Gabriel nor fifth-rounder Shedeur Sanders -- who hasn’t even logged a regular season play yet -- have shown to be a long-term solution at the most important position in all of sports.