After Their Disappointing 2025 Season, The Bucs Owe Baker Mayfield Nothing

The 31-year-old quarterback has said he feels ‘disrepected’ over the lack of a new contract entering this season.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield finished with 26 TD passes and 11 interceptions while playing all 17 games last season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Prosperity is earned in life, not given. Certainly not owed.

The latest example of this truth can be seen in the situation brewing between Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. 

On Thursday morning, Mayfield took the podium at Tampa Bay’s training camp and publicly criticized the organization, stating he feels his play has earned him another contract. It’s the kind of honesty we all appreciate from our athletes because it’s so rare. Yet in this case, perhaps Mayfield should have reconsidered his stance after a look in the mirror.

The Buccaneers are coming off a bitterly disappointing 8–9 season, one that many thought could end up in the Super Bowl after Tampa Bay began 5–1, including wins over the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers. At that juncture, Mayfield was garnering MVP talk, and the Bucs were in the early race for home-field advantage.

If that’s where the season ended, or if it were only the beginning of a magical journey, Mayfield would have had a great argument for another contract despite being 31 years old and on his fourth team. 

But that’s not how 2025 ended. Over the final 11 games of the season, Tampa Bay went 3–8 and unfathomably lost the NFC South race to the Panthers. Over that span, Mayfield threw 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, contributing to one of the biggest meltdowns in franchise history.

The analytics back up the notion that Mayfield was a problem. He finished 20th in EPA at -3.6, sandwiched between rookie Jaxson Dart of the Giants and the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr., who played in only nine games. Only four times did he post a QB rating higher than 100.0, with three of those performances coming in Week 6 and before. 

For general manager Jason Licht, extending Mayfield after that would have been a fool’s errand. In three seasons clad in pewter, Mayfield has won a single playoff game. For his career, he has won two. His record in Tampa Bay is 27–24 despite being surrounded by receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka, left tackle Tristan Wirfs and running back Bucky Irving.

Additionally, with the Bucs coming off an abysmal season, what’s the rush for Licht? If Mayfield and the team bounce back, Licht can extend his quarterback after the season or slap the franchise tag on him, which will be approximately $50.3 million (for one season) next winter. 

Jason Licht has been the Bucs' GM since January 2014. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For Mayfield, the security of future guaranteed money and a long-term contract would be ideal, but playing on the tag would be far from a disaster. If he was earning the aforementioned $50.3 million this year, that would rank 12th in the NFL among quarterbacks. That seems awfully fair for a player who has thrown for 4,000 yards just twice and 30 touchdowns once.

Furthermore, there’s an opportunity cost in extending Mayfield now for the Buccaneers. 

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If Tampa struggles again, now it’s locked into an expensive quarterback on the wrong side of 30 with two bad years as a tail wind. And with the rookie class of 2027 projecting as generational for signal-callers, potentially including Arch Manning (Texas), Dante Moore (Oregon), Julian Sayin (Ohio State), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) and others, Licht should be prioritizing flexibility at the sport’s most important position. 

Going into the weekend, the Buccaneers have the 20th-longest Super Bowl odds at +5000, tied with the Commanders. While Mayfield is far from the chief reason Tampa Bay is looking at a long road back to championship contention, he’s also not keeping the team in the annual discussion as other top quarterbacks do for their teams.

If Mayfield wants to be extended, here’s a golden chance to earn it. In a division where the Falcons, Saints and Panthers are all somewhere between average and poor, the Buccaneers can run away and hide while Mayfield leads them to a division title with his take-no-prisoners approach. That didn’t happen last season, and if history repeats itself, what’s the argument for making a sizable investment into Mayfield’s mid-30s?

While it’s understandable Mayfield feels disrespected after making Pro Bowl appearances for Tampa Bay in 2023 and ‘24, he should take a glance around the league for perspective. The Ravens once let Lamar Jackson go into the offseason without a deal before placing the non-exclusive franchise tag on him, this despite his having won an MVP award. Currently in Houston, the Texans haven’t extended C.J. Stroud, who in three seasons has helped them to the divisional round each campaign.

Jackson is inarguably better (and younger) than Mayfield, while Stroud is 24 years old and contains oceans of potential. Although Mayfield deserves credit for throwing 41 touchdowns and totaling 4,500 yards in 2024, the NFL is a recency-focused business. And recently, he hasn’t played in a fashion that would force Licht’s hand.  

In life, nothing is deserved. Everything is earned. And coming off an 8–9 debacle to which he heavily contributed, it’s time for Mayfield to earn the money he seeks.

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