Super Bowl LXI Road Map: Baker Mayfield Stalemate Could Impact Buccaneers’ Season

Tampa Bay could still win the NFC South, but that’s likely the extent of it with several pressing questions, including the future of its starting quarterback.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is trying to negotiate an extension with Tampa Bay. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Super Bowl road maps: Jaguars | Bears | Browns | Dolphins | Packers | Lions | Texans | Vikings | Falcons | Chiefs | Buccaneers | Bengals  | Steelers | Colts | Rams | Panthers | Chargers | Titans | Cardinals | Ravens | Saints | Seahawks | Commanders

Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Buccaneers.

Sometimes, a season can feel like a lifetime. For the Buccaneers, the 2025 season must have felt like a decade. 

After starting 5–1, including wins over the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers, Tampa Bay appeared poised to breeze to its fifth consecutive NFC South title before threatening to make its second Super Bowl appearance in six years. Instead, the Buccaneers cratered, going 3–8 over their final 11 games to finish behind the Panthers in the division and out of the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

This offseason, longtime staple Mike Evans went to San Francisco, signing a three-year contract to be quarterback Brock Purdy’s newest target. On defense, linebacker Lavonte David retired after 14 seasons, leaving a significant hole in the middle of the unit. 

And now that training camp is underway, Baker Mayfield is upset about his contract, or lack thereof, of an extension. Mayfield wanted a new deal before camp, and it didn't happen, and he expressed his frustration on Thursday morning to the assembled media.

“I wanted the deal done, and set the deadline and told them it was going to be all ball after that. ... I don’t know if they thought I was just gonna take some of the offers that they gave, but I’m at the point in my career and understanding what I’ve brought to this franchise. One: I’m very, very thankful for the chance they gave me, do not get me wrong on that. But I also know what I’ve brought to this franchise, leadership-wise and play-wise. It’s been some of the best years of my career and I think it’s only going to trend upwards. ... Disappointing in that regard to feel disrespected a little bit.”

Baker Mayfield says he’s very disappointed the Bucs didn’t extend his contract and he was serious about the deadline. He addressed the team. He says he knows his value. pic.twitter.com/w8CAp6OZRE

— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) July 30, 2026

Tampa Bay is trying to recapture the status of a contender without being able to claim that its additions are equal to or greater than its subtractions. The result is a team on the brink of a potential rebuild, unless some familiar faces in the same places can produce different results and it can agree to an extension with its quarterback.

Leadership

Few teams have seen more continuity at the top than the Bucs. Todd Bowles enters his fifth season as head coach after winning Super Bowl LV as the defensive coordinator under Bruce Arians. Bowles, 62, is the eighth-longest tenured coach among active coaches (tied with the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell), giving players and fans a sense of exactly what to expect.

To that same point, general manager Jason Licht is in his 13th season. Licht has overseen plenty of winning and has drafted some stars in the making in recent years, highlighted by 2025 first-round receiver Emeka Egbuka, ’24 fourth-round running back Bucky Irving and ’23 first-rounder Calijah Kancey, who had 11.5 sacks over his first two seasons before being limited to three games last year with a torn pec.

The only area of consistent change has been at the offensive coordinator position. Tampa Bay has employed four in that position since Bowles took the top job, including a pair of head coaches, Dave Canales (Panthers) and Liam Coen (Jaguars). Now, with Josh Grizzard in his second season, quarterback Baker Mayfield won’t be digesting as much new information at training camp.

Typically, having a coach with three division titles in four years is a good thing. But for Tampa Bay, it could be considered inertia as the team has won only a single playoff game in Bowles’s tenure with no NFC title game appearances.

Most influential roster move

After losing David to retirement, the Buccaneers decided to infuse their front seven with Detroit veterans, including linebacker Alex Anzalone and defensive end Al-Quadin Muhammad. However, Licht also spent his first two draft picks on edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. from Miami (Fla.) and Missouri linebacker Josiah Trotter, son of former NFL standout Jeremiah Trotter.

In Bain and Trotter, Tampa Bay is getting much-needed athleticism and youth for a front that has been lacking on both counts, save for Kancey. While nose tackle Vita Vea remains an important cog, he’s also 31 years old, the same age as Anzalone, Muhammad and fellow free-agent signing, defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson.

At Miami, Bain amassed 20.5 sacks during his time with the Hurricanes, helping them reach the 2026 National Championship Game against Indiana. As for Trotter, he spent a year at West Virginia before transferring to Columbia, producing 84 tackles, including 13 for loss and two sacks in the SEC for the Tigers. 

Both Bain and Trotter figure to have immediate, prominent roles in Bowles’s defense.

Why this offseason move will work

While losing Evans to the 49ers is an emotional blow, it’s also the right move by Licht to let the 12-year veteran leave. Evans will turn 33 in August and is coming off his first season without 1,000 yards. 

Additionally, the Buccaneers are loaded with receivers, including Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan and Egbuka, giving them one of the best trios in the league, if they’re healthy. Godwin has only played 16 games over the past two years but strung together three 1,000-yard seasons before that. McMillan had 461 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie in 2024 before playing three games last year with a neck issue. Then there’s Egbuka, who earned Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration with 938 yards and six scores.

While it’s a big variable, Tampa Bay’s passing offense should be able to thrive without Evans if its remaining wideouts can stay on the field.

Buccaneers safety Tykee Smith had 100 tackles, including six for loss and two sacks in 2025. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Breakout player candidate: Tykee Smith, S

Don’t be surprised if Smith ends up becoming a Pro Bowler or an All-Pro candidate before his rookie contract concludes.

Smith, 25, took on a larger role last year in his second season and made an impression alongside star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. While playing 92% of the defensive snaps, Smith tallied 100 tackles, including six for loss, with five quarterback hits and two sacks. However, he also shined in coverage with 13 passes defensed, ranking him first among safeties in 2025, while his quarterback hits were sixth.

With Winfield justifiably getting more of the praise and accolades, Smith is easy to overlook in a small market, especially on an eight-win team in a bad division. But entering his third season, he is one of the young, rising stars in the league and could be in line for a hefty extension once he becomes eligible after this year.

Missing piece

While the front seven got a talent infusion, there’s also a question of whether there are enough difference-makers in the group. 

Bain and Trotter project to be plus-players, but are they going to make enough noise as rookies to move the needle? Bain is in the especially tough position of coming into the league as an edge rusher, a tough spot to make an immediate impact. In fact, just 36 rookies have recorded double-digit sacks since the stat became official in 1982.

If the defense is going to work, it’ll be because Bowles dials up some of his trademark blitzes to help Bain and Muhammad win one-on-one situations. Anzalone needs to help Tampa Bay lessen the departure of David, who in his final year notched 114 total tackles, including eight for loss and 3.5 sacks. 

Should Kancey, Bain and Muhammad all have good years, the Buccaneers have enough to create problems for opposing quarterbacks. If not, Bowles will have to blitz aggressively (the Bucs have been top-four in blitz rate each of the past three years) and hope a young secondary featuring second-year corners Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish can hold up in coverage without additional help.

Realistic outlook

Tampa Bay can win the NFC South, but that’s likely the extent of it.

Baker Mayfield is a top-15 quarterback, and Tampa Bay has some legitimate weapons and a defense with potential both up front and in the secondary. That said, Mayfield is 32 and entering a contract season. There are several injury concerns. Many of the defensive pillars are either extremely green or in their 30s, with few in their prime seasons. 

Ultimately, the talent is there, but so are a multitude of pressing questions.

It would be surprising to see the Buccaneers have another stretch where they lose eight of 11 games, but it also would be equally surprising to see Tampa Bay in the NFC title game or beyond, a place the franchise hasn’t gone since 2020.

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