What are Buccaneers' playoff chances after brutal Week 16 loss to Panthers?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a bad spot. They lost their Week 16 game to the Carolina Panthers 23-20, which now puts them behind in the division with two weeks left to play. They're seeking their fifth-straight NFC South title, mainly because it's the only way they're going to get in the playoffs.

The Bucs are 7-8 as it stands and one game back in the NFC South — so what chance do they have of making the playoffs? We break down what the playoff picture looks like with two games to play below:

What are Buccaneers' playoff chances after Week 16?

Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales greets Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Buccaneers came into this week with a 77% chance to make the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats. After their loss to the Carolina Panthers, that number tanked to 58%, down 19%. That's a rough drop, but believe it or not, they're still favored to win the NFC South as it stands.

The Carolina Panthers now have a 42% chance to make the playoffs as the No. 4 seed and winner of the NFC South. So why do the Buccaneers still have a higher win percentage? The math is simple — the Buccaneers hold every tiebreaker over the Panthers, which means that, for the most part, all they have to do is win in Week 18 to win the NFC South and make the playoffs. That's how it is for most scenarios, but there is one that would see them eliminated one game early.

The Panthers host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 and the Buccaneers go on the road to play against the Miami Dolphins. Should the Panthers win that game against Seattle and the Buccaneers lose their game against the Dolphins, the Panthers would win the division outright and wouldn't need to beat the Bucs in Week 18. There's another whacky scenario where the Falcons win out (Rams, Saints), and the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, which would also mean the Panthers are in on a three-way tiebreaker.

That's all unlikely, though — the Seahawks are the NFC's current No. 1 seed, after all. For the most part, the Buccaneers will simply have to beat the Panthers in Week 18 to make it in. They won't overlook the Dolphins first, though, who they play at 1 p.m. next Sunday.

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