Chargers (and Raiders, Broncos) get awful draft grades compared to Chiefs using new analytical model

NFL execs -- and draft analysts -- spend thousands of hours evaluating college players, grading them, attempting to quantify their potential value overall and, more specifically, to their individual team. Not an exact science to be sure, it's highly subjective. The same can be said for post-draft grades of the teams' draft classes.

One new analytical model attempts to root those grades in data and the results aren't pretty for the Los Angeles Chargers. Austin Mock ofThe Athletic uses a methodology that attaches real dollar value to each draft slot (No. 1 - 262) and then evaluates each selection and an entire draft class based on three different categories -- Player Value, Positional Value, and Trade Value.

Feb 28, 2025; North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton (RB09) talks to the press during the 2025 NFL Combine. | Stephanie Amador Blondet-Imagn Images

Mock points to 'Trade Value' as perhaps the simplest way to understand it: "The first pick has a value close to $49 million, while the last pick has a value of under $2 million. If a team traded the first pick for the last pick, it’d lose about $47 million in value." Similar calculations are made for Player Value and Positional Value.

After the numbers were run, the grades weren't pretty -- the Chargers draft landed with a thud: a ' D- '. tied with the Denver Broncos, ahead of only five other teams in the entire NFL. Another AFC West rival, the Las Vegas Raiders, earned a 'D'.

RELATED: Chargers' Harbaugh edges out rival Pete Carroll in first AFC West draft battle

"At first glance, the Chargers drafted five players at premium positions, which should have kept them out of the cellar," Mock writes, "However, they paired two poor strategies together when it comes to securing long-term value in a draft. First, they picked a running back in the first round; second, they consistently “reached” for players versus the consensus... The board also saw wide receiver Tre Harris and defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell as reaches within the top 100."

Feb 25, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz speaks during the NFL Scouting Combine. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

While this basement-dwelling grade is certainly not the consensus among draft experts, Mock's system does give food for thought. The Chargers' GM Joe Hortiz and HC Jim Harbaugh have earned confidence of their evaluation of talent based off the mid-late round picks of their 2024 draft so perhaps those "reaches" won't cost as much as Mock predicts. The real challenge continues to be overcoming the Kansas City Chiefs - they received a 'B'.

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