Analytics Recap: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
With many doubting them, the Kansas City Chiefs put on a big-time performance on a national stage against the Baltimore Ravens, beating them 34-20 on Monday Night Football. The first half was among the best halves we have seen from the Chiefs, and they were able to hold off the Ravens' attempts at a second-half comeback.
Here are the advanced numbers, such as expected points added (EPA), success rate, and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) for the game on Ben Baldwin's stats website, rbsdm.com. This was a total masterclass on the part of Patrick Mahomes, putting up a staggering 36.2 EPA, the highest of Mahomes' career, and a 92.5 Pro Football Focus grade, the fifth-highest of his career!
There were numerous beneficiaries of this performance from Mahomes, notably Mecole Hardman (81 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, 8.1 receiving EPA), Tyreek Hill (77 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, 6.4 receiving EPA), Travis Kelce (87 receiving yards, 6.5 receiving EPA), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (70 receiving yards, 6.5 receiving EPA) and Sammy Watkins (62 receiving yards, 4.5 receiving EPA).
Mahomes (36.2 EPA), Hill (9.2 EPA), Hardman (8.1 EPA), Kelce (6.5 EPA) and Watkins (4.5 EPA) were the top five players of the game for Total EPA and, due to his -4.3 rushing EPA, Edwards-Helaire (2.2 EPA) came in seventh, trailing Ravens TE Nick Boyle (2.4) for sixth.
On the other side of the ball, it was a very tough day for Lamar Jackson. Jackson had 97 passing yards and a passing EPA of -10.5. Part of this can be blamed on Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown combining for five drops just for the two of them, but Jackson is not at all blameless. Jackson had just five first downs through the air all game, despite trailing for much of the game. Jackson's yards per pass attempt was also a shockingly low 3.5, the lowest of his career by more than a yard. Jackson's supporting cast didn't do him any favors, but Jackson still had one of the worst games of his career so far.
In terms of league-wide metrics, the Chiefs are a top-three team in the NFL when looking at Offensive and Defensive EPA, alongside the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers. All three teams stand alone as the only teams with an Offensive EPA per play greater than 0.25 and all three teams also have above-average Defensive EPA per play numbers.
In addition to that, the Chiefs regained their rightful place as the league's top team in terms of early-down passing rate, just edging out the Seattle Seahawks with both passing on over 60% of their first and second-down plays with a win probability between 20 and 80%. This is thanks to passing on more than 70% of plays in that situation against the Ravens. It was a sensational performance by Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy, both from a playcalling standpoint and a play design standpoint. It was everything we could have asked for and more.
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