Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Chiefs' Defense
With a good amount of turnover on its side of the ball, the Kansas City Chiefs' defense has a wide range of potential outcomes for 2021.
After going through the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Chiefs' offense last week, it is time to switch to the defensive side of the ball and examine how high and low the Chiefs' defense can realistically go this year.
First up is possibly the most interesting unit on defense: the defensive line.
Defensive line
The biggest story of the defense this offseason and a big reason to be optimistic about the defensive line is Chris Jones’s switch to defensive end. A slimmed-down Jones has dominated offseason practices and preseason games with his very rare blend of power and quickness. At defensive tackle, Jones occasionally struggled with not-always-disciplined run defense, and a switch to defensive end with a simplified role against the run on the edge could be beneficial to Jones and the Chiefs.
Jones's move to end also allows the Chiefs to employ much more interesting defensive line packages that let new signing Jarran Reed and second-year player Tershawn Wharton (who has also played well over the course of the preseason), onto the field. If Jones carries over his offseason dominance at defensive end, then the unit could be vastly improved from last year.
The same reason to be optimistic about the defensive line this year is also a reason to have pessimism creep in. Chris Jones is an All-Pro level defensive tackle, so moving him to a new position is always a risk. Luckily, it seems Jones has kept his strength so the Chiefs and Jones should not have too many problems moving him back to tackle if the experiment at end does not work. The defensive end spot opposite Jones also gives reason to worry, with Frank Clark already dealing with some injuries in addition to his offseason arrests looming over his head. Taking Clark’s spot if he misses any time would be a platoon of players who are not necessarily proven in the NFL or are just depth pieces. Jones has a lot of pressure to perform on the edge to keep the pass rush afloat this year.
Linebackers
With two recent second-round picks in the linebacking corps, it is hard not to be optimistic that the Chiefs' linebacker group cannot at least be a league-average unit this year. Willie Gay Jr. has shown improvement so far over training camp. Nick Bolton has also flashed why he was the cornerstone defensive player at Mizzou. Even Anthony Hitchens has received positive buzz so far as he has slimmed down and looked noticeably quicker on the field because of it. If even one of the rookies ascends to being a quality linebacker this year, the linebacking corps should be the best it has been since the heyday of Derrick Johnson.
With young players comes volatility. This volatility can cause certain team-building views to look at the same player with optimism or pessimism. Teams that rely on young players to take the next step are making a calculated risk on their assessment of the player and the coaching to get the most out of them. The Chiefs, as they currently stand, are relying on two such players to take the next step for the linebacking group to be good. While both have shown flashes of this jump, it remains to be seen if they will play like this in the regular season.
Cornerbacks
The Need for Sneed is the headline of the cornerback group. After a very good rookie year providing reason for plenty of optimism, L’Jarius Sneed is looking to build upon his rookie year and become the focal point of the Chiefs’ cornerback room. The plan for Sneed, as he and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have alluded to this offseason, is to play outside cornerback in base packages and then slide into the slot most of the time. While it is a unique plan, it does make sense. Sneed has the size and speed to play outside, but he seemed to come into his own as a slot blitzer late last year, racking up a good amount of sacks. If Sneed improves heading into year two, he will be a cornerstone franchise player.
The Chiefs' cornerback room is in possibly the worst overall state it has been in for a while. It is easy to see how this group could underperform and is probably the group that leads to the most pessimism when projecting the Chiefs year. Outside of Sneed, only Charvarius Ward has played a meaningful amount of snaps as an outside cornerback. Behind Ward are a lot of cornerbacks who have promise but are entirely unproven. Rashad Fenton, Mike Hughes, Deandre Baker and others fit that mold. The Chiefs are relying on an unproven commodity to step up if one of the top two corners get hurt, and one of those corners is coming onto the field in nickel/dime packages already. It is hard to say how this group will end up this year, but there is a real reason to be pessimistic.
Safeties
With pretty much the same group of players as last year returning to helm the safety position this year, optimism for this group is just expecting more of the same. Expectations for a player like Tyrann Mathieu continues to be that he is a top-five safety, something that is likely to repeat itself. Daniel Sorensen should continue to be a solid role player and make splash plays as he has always done in his career. The one wildcard is Juan Thornhill, who has had an odd training camp that saw him play with the first, second, and third-team often. Thornhill and Spagnuolo have discussed this in recent days, mostly pointing to Thornhill just having a need for extra snaps as he never felt comfortable last year coming off his ACL tear. If Thornhill returns to his rookie form and improves on it, this group will be strong.
The only reason for pessimism for this group is the natural progression of father time in the NFL. Tyrann Mathieu is getting closer to 30, Daniel Sorensen is already north of 30, and if father time hits both at the same time, one of the strengths of the defense turns into a weakness. The likelihood that this happens this year is small, but it is there.
Through two preseason games, there is more to be optimistic about on the Chiefs' defense than pessimistic. The starters have stymied both the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, Chris Jones has looked dominant on the edge, the young linebackers have played well and the usual suspects like Mathieu and Sneed have looked as advertised. The worst-case scenario does not seem possible, as it sits now.
However, in the NFL things can change quickly. If the Chiefs' defense does perform well this year, it is easy to see the Chiefs making their third-consecutive Super Bowl.
