Projecting a Contract Extension for Tyrann Mathieu with the Chiefs
Throughout the entire 2021 offseason for the Kansas City Chiefs, there has been one incomplete storyline: the process of extending the contract of star safety Tyrann Mathieu.
Ever since draft coverage waned in mid-May, Mathieu's potential extension has dominated Chiefs headlines. Whether it was asking general manager Brett Veach about a new contract for Mathieu or asking Mathieu himself, it's been a persistent point of conversation, as Mathieu's current deal expires after the 2021 season.
Most answers have been pretty candid. Both Veach and Mathieu have acknowledged they want to get a contract done and Mathieu himself has said he wants to finish his career in Kansas City.
And yet, a contract has still not been signed. What's the hold-up? What might the Chiefs and Mathieu be pushing for? Let's try to figure that out.
What would a fair contract for both sides look like?
It is fair to assume Mathieu is looking for a top-of-the-market contract for a safety, considering his back-to-back All-Pro seasons the last two years and his position within the Chiefs' locker room. Any player in his shoes would want a contract to reflect that kind of production.
There was only one major safety contract signed earlier this offseason, signed by fellow AFC West safety Justin Simmons. Simmons was signed to a four-year, $61 million extension by the Denver Broncos, making him the highest-paid safety in the league in terms of average paid per year. Simmons's $32.1 million in fully guaranteed money was also the highest in the league for a safety, just outpacing Landon Collins's $31 million in full guarantees.
It is safe to assume Mathieu is asking for this type of money, or maybe a bit more.
An interesting wrinkle is that Mathieu has the highest salary cap hit of any safety this year, and by a healthy margin. Mathieu's $19.73 million salary cap hit this year is tops in the league, compared to Collins's $16.9 million cap hit. Any new contract with Mathieu will probably lower this salary cap number this year to try and carry over some salary cap space to 2022.
One last wrinkle in any Mathieu extension talks should be his age. Mathieu just turned 29 on May 13. Investing a lot of money into a player who is almost 30 is definitely something to consider. However, Mathieu's brand of cerebral play should be able to let him age gracefully, so as long as the contract stays under four years in length, there should not be an issue with a fall-off in play under any new extension.
Combining all those factors, a fair offer to Mathieu that would be fine for the Chiefs to fit in their salary cap would be a four-year extension that looks something like the following.
The projected deal
- 2021: $11.5 million salary cap hit. $3.5 million base salary. Restructured $11 million in existing base salary into an $11 million signing bonus.
- 2022: $16.25 million salary cap hit. $13.5 million fully guaranteed base salary.
- 2023: $16.75 million salary cap hit. $5 million of base salary guaranteed. $10.5 million in dead money and $6.25 million in salary cap savings if cut.
- 2024: $17.75 million salary cap hit. $2.75 million in dead money and $15 million in salary cap savings if cut.
Total Contract: Four years, $62.25 million total, $33.25 million fully guaranteed at signing with $5 million in 2023 base salary guaranteeing during the 2022 offseason.
This would give Mathieu the largest safety contract in average money paid per year, the most guarantees at signing out of any safety contract, and strong guarantees for three years. The Chiefs would be given an out in 2024 just in case Mathieu loses a step to father time. By 2024, Mathieu would have earned over $30 million in new money. This is a contract that both sides should be happy about.
What is the hold-up between the Chiefs and Mathieu in reality?
It is hard to say what has stopped the Chiefs and Mathieu from reaching a contract extension this offseason. The best guess is the length of the contract or guarantees. With Mathieu being on the older side of NFL players, it stands to reason the Chiefs are probably pursuing a shorter deal. Any shorter deal will have fewer guarantees unless it is fully guaranteed, which might not sit well with Mathieu. If the Chiefs are asking for three years total and Mathieu is asking for four years total, then there could definitely be a stalemate on those terms.
Whatever is causing an extension for Mathieu to take a bit longer than expected, it stands to reason that a contract will eventually be signed. Mathieu is the heart and soul of the Chiefs' defense and as long as he is playing at the level the Chiefs have seen the last few years, there is no reason they should let him leave.
It is hard to replace a player and leader like Tyrann Mathieu, and his next contract will reflect that.
