What Should We Expect from Patrick Mahomes in 2020?
Patrick Mahomes has played in two full seasons as a starting quarterback after sitting for most of his rookie campaign. In those two short years, he's won an MVP award, a Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP honors. The scary thing is that he's probably going to get better.
After throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in 2018, Mahomes' numbers took a step back last season. 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions isn't a bad stat line by any means, but we had grown to expect more outrageous numbers from a player who is still just 24 years old. On the other hand, Mahomes did miss nearly three whole games with a knee injury and battled a nagging ankle problem for a large chunk of the season. Here's a season-by-season comparison of his numbers thus far:
| Mahomes' Stats | YPG | YPA | COMP % | TD% | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 318.6 | 8.8 | 66.0 | 8.6 | 113.8 |
2019 | 287.9 | 8.3 | 65.9 | 5.4 | 105.3 |
(Data via Pro Football Reference)
Sure, stats are cool. It's entirely possible that with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at his disposal, Mahomes will somehow outdo himself in 2020. Maybe he'll even break the NFL records for yards and touchdowns in a single season. If you're looking for numbers, though, look no further than the downright silly performances Mahomes had in this past season's playoff run.
In three games en route to capturing his first championship, Mahomes passed for 901 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He also took just six sacks and posted a 111.5 passer rating. That was more in line with what he showed us as a second-year quarterback. Could that version — a healthy and firing-on-all-cylinders version — of Mahomes return this season? Perhaps. With that said, the goal for the Chiefs' entire #RunItBack campaign is to win. Here's how Mahomes can help the team do so, even if the stats don't reflect it.
Mahomes is always going to be known for his elite arm strength, impressive athleticism and highlight-reel plays. The minor details and intricate parts of the game are where he can improve, and that should certainly be the case as he matures. It was pretty apparent that the ankle injury he suffered early in the 2019 season contributed to his pocket management for quite some time afterward.
Getting rid of unnecessary movement and cutting down on "happy feet" reps will help take Mahomes' game to the next level. He's an assassin from the pocket and an increased level of trust in his offensive line — along with no longer nursing any injuries — should make a big difference.
Another facet of Mahomes' game that gets overlooked is his continued progress when it comes to settling for his checkdown. This was a major concern for him heading into the 2017 NFL Draft, and Andy Reid has since turned him into a remarkably efficient decision-maker. This play is a perfect example of that at work:
In 2018, Mahomes may try to get out of the pocket and turn a simple checkdown into a splash play. Who knows whether it would have worked or not, but this is growth at its finest. Passing on the big play potential and deciding to give his running back a chance to pick up a few yards is an important split-second choice a quarterback has to make. If Mahomes can continue to create small net-positive plays instead of throwing the ball away, taking a sack or risking a turnover, he'll make yet another leap.
People say it all the time: it's the little things. For Patrick Mahomes, it truly is (unless we're talking about rings). He doesn't struggle at anything. His statistical production last year may not have been at the insane bar set in 2018, but there's a legitimate argument to be made that he was a better quarterback. That should be the case again in 2020, but this time, we may have another otherworldly set of numbers to go along with it. After all, he's smarter, stronger and healthy.
