Here’s Most Unmistakable Factor in Whether Chiefs Win or Lose

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Contrary to popular belief – at least over the last 11 months – the Chiefs are extremely predictable. Whether they win or lose ultimately comes down to one all-important factor.

Patrick Mahomes interceptions.

Since the calendar flipped to November last season, Kansas City is 12-1 when he doesn’t throw an interception, the only loss coming in Week 1 this year. But when the two-time MVP throws at least one to the other team, including playoffs, the Chiefs are 0-4.

mahomes, hollywood brown, travis kelc — Sep 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) celebrates with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Needless to say, Mahomes hasn’t thrown a lot to the other team during that period. This season, up until Devin Lloyd’s game-changing takeaway in last week’s loss at Jacksonville, Mahomes had just one interception over his first 167 attempts.

Last week, the interception was especially painful not simply because it resulted in a 14-point swing after Lloyd’s 99-yard touchdown. It also came after two three-and-outs, and at the end of a methodical 11-play drive consuming more than six minutes in a tie game.

devin lloyd, patrick mahome — Oct 6, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd returns and interception for a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the second half at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

Plenty of positives

“There's good within there that we're doing,” offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said Thursday. “We like that. We can build but it's the situational stuff. When you have a game like that, you want to take advantage of. We didn't do that. I think the beauty of who we are is we stick together. We learn from it, and we got to correct it.”

They corrected it on Monday night. After that third-quarter interception, Mahomes led the Chiefs on a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown drives, the last of which – a 12-play, 86-yard march consuming most of the final eight minutes -- appeared to ice a Kansas City win when Kareem Hunt landed in the end zone.

kareem hun — Jacksonville Jaguars safety Eric Murray (29) tries to stop Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) from scoring in the fourth quarter during a Monday Night NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug EngleFlorida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“We wanted to do our part,” Nagy explained, “after giving up that pick-six, of going down there and making sure that we put together a good drive. Right before that, the defense got a pick, and we went in and took advantage of that.”

Both 2025 interceptions have been at the opponent goal line. The other was the excruciating turnover that bounced off Travis Kelce and into the hands of Eagles rookie Andrew Mukuba.

travis kelce, andrew mukub — Sep 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Eagles safety Andrew Mukuba (24) intercepts a pass intended for Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) during the fourth quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The difference this season, compared to last

Last season, Mahomes threw only two interceptions over a 429-pass stretch from Oct. 27 until Cooper DeJean picked off his pass and returned it 38 yards for a touchdown in the Super Bowl. His only two interceptions in that stretch came in his only loss, a 30-21 setback at Buffalo on Nov. 17.

The stark difference this year, compared to 2024, is that Mahomes is limiting interceptions while being aggressive. Last year, he took deep shots and threw into tight windows at a much lower rate than 2025.

Case in point, last week Mahomes took a chance in the first quarter, absorbing a shot from blitzing safety Andrew Wingard, and Tyquan Thornton turned it into a critical 32-yard reception.

“And I've always been of the mindset,” Mahomes said Wednesday, “if they're going to blitz, we got to be aggressive and throw the ball down the field. That’s your best opportunity to do that, and so give a guy a chance down the field. And Tyquan, I didn't get it far enough, but Tyquan did a great job coming back and adjusting to the ball and making a play.”

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