3 Final Predictions for Chiefs-Texans

Keep an eye on special teams when the Houston Texans punt on Sunday night.

Jan 18, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs with the ball during the second half against Houston Texans in a 2025 AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Trent McDuffie saw the change when he woke up and looked at his iPhone on Monday morning. The 2025 season has transitioned to December.

“We've been here before,” the Chiefs’ All-Pro cornerback said this week. “Coaches are always saying to make it a December to remember. You play your best football in December. And the attitude around here is understanding where we're at. We have a shot. We're still in the hunt.”

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) celebrates after an interception during the first half against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The hunt, according to most observers when the Chiefs host Houston on Sunday Night Football (7:20 p.m. CT, NBC/KSHB-TV, Channel 41, 96.5 The Fan), applies to Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter preying on Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs could start three backup offensive linemen against the ferocious Houston defense.

But NFL games generally don’t follow Gallup polls. If they did, Thomas Dewey would’ve beaten Harry Truman in the 1948 election. Along those lines, here are three final predictions for the AFC showdown at the Truman Sports Complex on Sunday night.

Oct 6, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton (80) runs after a catch during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Chiefs will hit one deep shot

Mahomes, who incidentally owns a 26-6 (.813) record in December, didn’t say if the Chiefs take deep shots on the Texans, he said when.

“We'll try to do the best we can,” he said Wednesday. “That’s getting the ball out of my hand, running the football, and then whenever there's shots on the field, you got to be able to hit them.”

Three weeks ago against another top defense in Denver, the Chiefs took two deep shots on their first series, and Mahomes misfired on both. He won’t miss again. Houston has allowed a few long passes, including a 56-yarder and a 30-yard touchdown from Bo Nix to Courtland Sutton.

Look for Tyquan Thornton or Xavier Worthy to get in the end zone on the Chiefs’ longest touchdown pass of the season.

Oct 27, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Nikko Remigio (81) returns the kickoff against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Chiefs will muff a punt

One of the most significant 2025 injuries hit the Chiefs on Friday, and it wasn’t to an offensive lineman. Return specialist Nikko Remigio apparently sustained a concussion in the week’s final practice and was ruled out for the game.

While the Chiefs should be in good shape on kickoffs – where Brashard Smith and Thornton teamed up last week – punt returns could be an issue. Thornton is listed as the backup to Remigio, who has returned every punt for the Chiefs since Dec. 8 last season, including playoffs.

In four years of college at Baylor, and three-plus years in the NFL, Thornton has never returned a punt. It’s a highly volatile weakness for the Chiefs against the Texans, among the league’s best punt-coverage teams. And Tommy Townsend, a former Chiefs punter, knows how to fool returners at Arrowhead Stadium.

Sep 21, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans punter Tommy Townsend (6) punts the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | Travis Register-Imagn Images

Kansas City will win on a last-second field goal

The wind will be a factor at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday night, and both kickers could struggle. But as good as the Texans’ defense is, their offense is atrocious both inside the red zone (31st in the league) and in goal-to-go situations (tied for 31st).

That’s a big advantage for the Chiefs’ offense, which had three touchdowns in three possessions in the red area last week at Dallas.

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker (7) prepares to kick a field goal in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Andy Reid will pull out all the stops in his thick playbook, extending drives with fourth downs and at least one trick play – and Harrison Butker’s experience at his home stadium will give the Chiefs a game-winning field goal.

The Chiefs’ point total won’t exceed the kickoff temperature, but they will secure a 20-17 win.

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