Best-Case, Worst-Case and Most Likely Outcomes for the 2026 Chiefs

The 2025 season was nothing short of a disaster for the Kansas City Chiefs. Now that the 2026 NFL schedule is set, what's a reasonable expectation for the Chiefs' attempt at a rebound?

That was the topic of conversation on Monday's edition of Everything Else with Joshua Brisco on KC Sports Network.

To evaluate Kansas City's potential range of outcomes, I started by searching for a realistic floor and ceiling for the 2026 Chiefs. Even after going 6-11 last year, it's hard to imagine KC dipping to similar lows this season. Despite a worthy slate of opponents throughout 2026, the Chiefs have six matchups that I've labeled "no-excuse must-win" games. Kansas City simply must be expected to beat the Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders (twice), New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, of course, but if the Chiefs are in a position to lose any of those six games, they'd be testing my definition of "worst-case scenario."

The Chiefs should also be able to handle the Indianapolis Colts at home in prime time in Week 2, but Indy earns more respect from me than the aforementioned five struggling franchises. Additionally, I'll always expect Patrick Mahomes to help win a game that the team "shouldn't," so it's hard for me to imagine KC being worse than 8-9 or 7-10, even in the "worst-case" exercise.

The best-case scenario is much more fun. The Chiefs could sweep the AFC West, win all eight home games, lose three road games to the Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, and still be the likely owner of the AFC's No. 1 seed and first-round bye with a 14-3 record. If the defensive youth gels quickly while the offense comes out of the gates rejuvenated, the Chiefs would be well-positioned to reclaim the AFC.

But those are the best- and worst-case scenarios. What's most likely?

Glossing over some of the work that I explained on Monday's show, I see the Chiefs going 9-5 through Weeks 1-13 and Weeks 17-18, intentionally leaving three games out of the calculus.

The three games from Weeks 14-16 see the Chiefs travel to the Cincinnati Bengals before hosting the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers. If the Chiefs win all three of those games, they're (hypothetically) 12-5. If they win none, they're 9-8. Why does that stretch stand out as so defining?

The Chiefs have a brutal six-week stretch from Weeks 12-17, but I think they're rightful underdogs for their trips to face the Bills and Rams. For the sake of the thought exercise, I'm penciling those in as losses. Meanwhile, I could see the Bengals, Patriots and 49ers going any number of directions through the first three months of the season.

Joe Burrow has struggled to stay healthy throughout his NFL career and the Bengals have struggled to field a competent defense. If Burrow is hurt or the defense is disastrous once again, the Chiefs should win that game. If Cincinnati's offseason moves have bolstered the defense and they get 17 games of healthy Burrow, the Bengals could be a Super Bowl contender.

The Patriots have had the most high-profile offseason in the NFL and they've suffered noteworthy losses from their AFC-winning squad. What will NFL defenses have for Drake Maye in his third season? Like the Bengals, the Patriots could reasonably be a clear-cut contender or a team in disarray by December.

Similar unknowns apply to the 49ers. San Francisco has been one of the most successful teams in the league since 2019, but they've also finished as a six-win team twice since 2020. Constantly impacted by injuries and the brutal NFC West, the Niners could be a Super Bowl favorite or an afterthought by December 27.

So, what's the takeaway? Well, it's really hard to predict football games that are still seven months away. The Chiefs probably have a floor in the six-win range, a ceiling around 14 wins, and a whole lot of wiggle room in between. I'll pencil them in for a 7-3 record before they head to Buffalo for their Thanksgiving night showdown. If they can get to that point, the season will be determined in December.

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