How a Week 12 Win or Loss Impacts Chiefs’ Playoff Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs have a lot on the line in Week 12, no what's, if's, and's or buts about it.

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

There is no secret that the Kansas City Chiefs have a lot riding on the upcoming week in the National Football League. Week 12 will feature the Chiefs hosting the AFC South division-leading Indianapolis Colts in what holds huge playoff implications for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs, 5-5, have had a rocky season to say the least. However, while their AFC West hopes may have slipped in the Week 11 loss to the Denver Broncos, there is still hope to make the playoffs. That is, if they win on Sunday, of course.

The Colts, 8-2, have been a surprising team to say the least this season, but at the end of the day, they hold the best offense in the NFL in terms of average offensive yards and average points scored per game. But for the Chiefs, all they must think about is winning.

Playoff Probabilities

Aug 9, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of a Kansas City Chiefs helmet during a preseason NFL game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Pro Football Focus released the Chiefs' playoff probabilities, along with other NFL franchises in the hunt for a playoff spot, for the upcoming Week 12 slate. Knowing that the likes of the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens are all teams to compete with, a win in Week 12 is a must.

According to PFF, the Chiefs' playoff probabilities will sit at 68% if they find a way to take down the Colts. With a loss, the Chiefs' playoff hopes take a major hit, as their probability would drop below 50% to a 33% chance.

The teams with the most at stake this week 📊 pic.twitter.com/9E0rtaAN6b

— PFF (@PFF) November 20, 2025

A win against the Colts would not only help the franchise's playoff hopes, but it would also build some confidence in the locker room that the season isn't over yet. Head coach Andy Reid knows things haven't gone well as of late, but he does know there are areas to patch on both sides of the ball.

Reid's Thoughts Offensively

Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid walks the sideline before the game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

• “We’re not in a position where we need to wholesale that (the current offensive scheme). That’s not where we’re at right now. We need to just clean up some things. The nice part about this offense is you got a lot of directions you can go with it," Coach Reid said on Wednesday.

• A whole lot of things – different things you can do with it. It’s important that we do the right things and get ourselves in the right place."

Kansas City has fared well at home this season, as four of their five wins have come when they've played at Arrowhead. Things are looking up for the Chiefs, they just need to get the job done.

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