AFC Contenders Who Could Take Step Back in 2026, Opening Path for Chiefs

This season was not friendly for Kansas City, but next season could present a clearer path for the team, depending on Patrick Mahomes' health.

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the first quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

This past season obviously did not go as planned for the Kansas City Chiefs, who went 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. While Kansas City faced its downfall, other teams in the AFC developed into legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Chiefs' dethroning paved a path for several teams with young quarterbacks to gain invaluable experience.

As 2025 proved, a team's success or struggles from the prior season have no correlation. That will be the same heading into 2026, as you will refresh the page, and every team's record will be 0-0.

Kansas City may have been the disappointment of this season, but which teams in the AFC could take a step back next season, creating a path for a bounce-back campaign by the Chiefs?

Denver Broncos

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks with quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Broncos had a dream season, winning the AFC West, earning the No. 1 seed in the conference, and having a front-row seat to the Chiefs' demise. However, that could be a short-lived fairytale, as Denver had many things bounce their way in 2025.

In particular, one-score games predominantly went the Broncos' way, as they went 11-2 in those game scripts during the regular season.

Additionally, the noise and vibes around the organization are weird right now, with head coach Sean Payton making several questionable comments following the conclusion of the season. Denver has the resources to improve its already strong roster, but there are reasons to expect regression next season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau (50) tackles Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during the second quarter of an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bills defeated the Jaguars 27-24. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No matter how flukey the early-season success was for the Jaguars, they were still able to compile a 13-4 record and earn the No. 3 seed in the AFC. There are several reasons to believe Jacksonville could remain at the top of the AFC South, but there are a couple of concerning aspects to consider.

First, the Jaguars' roster could take a hit, as running back Travis Etienne Jr. and linebacker Devin Lloyd are both impending free agents. Jacksonville is currently $11.4 million over the cap, which isn't the end of the world, but it is more likely that both of those players depart in free agency. Brian Thomas Jr. could also be traded this offseason, as his chemistry with Trevor Lawrence is not there. There is a lot of speculation about that situation, but if the Jaguars lose those three players, it could prove costly.

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) rushes for yards against Buffalo Bills linebacker Dorian Williams (42) during the first quarter of an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bills defeated the Jaguars 27-24. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Secondly, the reason Jacksonville's roster is one of the deepest in the league is the fact that the organization has been picking inside the top 10 on a yearly basis. Not only will that not be the case in this year's draft, but the Jaguars do not own their first-round pick in this upcoming draft, as they traded it to the Cleveland Browns to move up and select Travis Hunter in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Jacksonville is in a weak division, but with several marquee starters potentially leaving and no first-round pick, it would not be surprising if the Jaguars are closer to .500 next season.

New England Patriots

Oct 19, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel talks to quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the second quarter at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Reaching the Super Bowl with a second-year quarterback and a head coach - Mike Vrabel - in his first year in charge is extremely impressive. However, there is circumstantial evidence to suggest that their success was a bit inflated.

New England had the third-weakest schedule in the league this season, and nine of their opponents will have new head coaches in 2026, proving how manageable their schedule was. The Patriots can definitely replicate that level of success next season, but it will not be as favorable a path during the regular season.

The Patriots will play a first-place schedule, which includes the AFC West and NFC North.

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