What Needs to Happen for Chiefs to Obtain Top-10 Draft Choice

Kansas City Chiefs haven't finished season with top-10 selection since holding No. 1 overall choice in 2013.

Sep 15, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) shakes hands with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – As the NFL grapples with an AFC playoff field devoid of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Chiefs are experiencing a different type of unfamiliar territory.

A No. 10 overall draft choice.

That’s where The Athletic predicts Kansas City will draft in April, according to the site’s projections after most of Week 16 became history with Jackson and Ravens losing to the Patriots on Sunday night.

Apr 25, 2024; Detroit, MI, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy is selected as the No. 28 pick of the first round by the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

No. 10 was where Chiefs drafted Texas Tech quarterback

That’s also the slot the Chiefs occupied in 2017 when they drafted Patrick Mahomes, but paid a stiff price to move up to the spot in a mammoth trade with Buffalo. This year, the stiff price they paid is a disastrous 2025 season.

Currently, if the season ended today, the Chiefs (6-9) would hold the No. 12 selection. But a lot can change between now and the Jan. 4 finale in Las Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid congratulates Tennessee Titans interim coach Mike McCoy after the game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Draft positioning is based on 1) league standings and 2) easier strength of schedule. The teams with the lowest winning percentages draft highest, obviously, but the tiebreaker goes to those who played the easiest schedules.

Atlanta and Miami are obvious competitors for Chiefs' choice

Kansas City (6-9) has the same record as Atlanta and Miami. However, the Dolphins (.492) and Falcons (.502) have played a schedule of opponents who’ve generated lower combined winning percentages. The Chiefs’ opponents have combined for a .514 mark, pushing Kansas City to No. 12.

Dallas (6-8-1) is also in the mix for a top-10 choice, just behind Kansas City at No. 13.

Nov 27, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) celebrates after catching a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Athletic gives the Chiefs a 52-percent chance of a top-10 selection. At this point, the highest selection Kansas City could get based on finish is No. 7. Washington (4-11) hosts the Cowboys earlier on Christmas Day, before the Chiefs host Denver that night (7:15 p.m. CT, Prime Video, NBC/KSHB-TV, Channel 41, 96.5 The Fan).

Should the Commanders lose, the highest Kansas City could draft would be eighth. New Orleans and Cincinnati are both 5-10 and could also affect the Chiefs’ positioning over the next two weeks.

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) tackles Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) carries the ball in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Chiefs could also fall toward the middle of the first round simply by playing Grinch to the Broncos and winning on Christmas night. And should that happen combined with a Lions loss earlier on Christmas in Minnesota – incredibly – two of the NFL’s best teams over the last two seasons would be jockeying for mid-round picks.

Detroit is 8-7 but has played a schedule with a .492 opponent winning percentage. The Lions’ final two opponents, Minnesota and Chicago, are similar to the Chiefs’ final two foes, Denver and Las Vegas. So, if both Detroit and Kansas City wind up tied at season’s end, the Lions figure to win the tie with a lower strength of schedule, and draft closer to the top than the Chiefs.

Dec 11, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes the ball against Atlanta Falcons linebacker James Pearce Jr. (27) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Because the Falcons traded back into the first round last April to select James Pearce, Omarr Norman-Lott’s teammate at Tennessee, the Rams actually own that Atlanta selection. The Falcons, however, will determine the final placement based on their 2025 finish.

Atlanta, ironically, hosts the Rams this week and finishes the year with the Saints.

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