How Week 10 Impacts Chiefs' Playoff Chances in 2025 Season

The Kansas City Chiefs are just 5-4 going into their Week 10 bye. This is one of the worst spots they've found themselves in at this point in the season since the dawn of the Patrick Mahomes era. In 2018, they were 8-1 going into Week 10. The next year, they were 6-3, then 6-3 again, then 8-1, 5-4 in 2021 (when they eventually fell to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game), 6-2, 7-2, and 9-0 last year.

The Chiefs can't improve their standing this week since they're on a bye, but they likely need the break to collect themselves after a brutal loss to the Buffalo Bills, 28-21. However, they have to ensure that they come out of the intermission hot, as they've lost most of their margin for error for the remainder of the season.

On the bright side, Kansas City has just the 20th-strongest remaining schedule in the NFL. Still, the team will have to be on its A-game to close the gap on the top teams in the AFC and ward off the fellow challengers around and behind them in the standings. The Chiefs could have even less wiggle room to work with after Week 10.

Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Travis Kelce, Buffalo Bills — Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce puts on his helmet getting ready to take the field during first half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Nov. 2, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chiefs have to come out hot

Despite their middling 5-4 record, the Kansas City Chiefs are still viewed as one of the top contenders in the league. They've earned that benefit of the doubt during their modern dynastic run, and they've looked the part during their 4-2 stretch in their six games leading up to the Week 10 bye.

However, that 1-2 start to the season could come back to bite them, as well as their latest loss to the Buffalo Bills. Still, a predictive model recently came out that tabbed KC with a 78 percent chance of making the playoffs going into Week 10. Those are pretty favorable odds for a team just barely over .500.

-- WEEK 10 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --

Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game. pic.twitter.com/L16J5YYq6h
— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) November 4, 2025

While they can't directly help or hurt their postseason chances in Week 10, the rest of the league will trudge on. The Chiefs already watched their divisional rival, the Denver Broncos, bolster their playoff aspirations with a narrow 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. The same predictive model has bumped Denver's chances of a postseason bid to 92 percent after the latest victory.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills, one of the Chiefs' top competitors in the AFC, can move their odds to 96 percent with a win over the Miami Dolphins. Some of the current Wild Card contenders in the conference can greatly increase their chances this week, too, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, who would move to 70 percent if they can beat the Houston Texans. Despite their bye, this is an imperative slate of games for the Chiefs this year.

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