3rd Degree: Why Chiefs Desperate to Improve in This Area

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Travis Kelce didn’t pull any punches, and his intuition was spot on.

The Chiefs’ fingernails aren’t growing fast enough to continue clawing out of holes they dig on third downs. In fact, that was one of the reasons they lost a close game at Buffalo last week.

“Yeah, the biggest thing was third-and-longs,” Kelce said on Wednesday’s edition of New Heights. “We got to get out of third-and-longs. And, it's all right if you have a few of them, but when you have over a handful of them, you got like third-and-6, third-and-8, third-and-10-plus, like you're making your day way harder.”

To the tune of just 3 of 13 (23.1 percent). That’s how they performed on third downs in the Buffalo game. They were 2 of 8 when faced on third-and-7 or longer. One of those long conversions was a 28-yard pass from Mahomes to Kelce on a third-and-9 midway through the third quarter. And Mahomes had to complete the pass with Joey Bosa in his face.

“Yeah, they did a great job,” Mahomes said after the game, asked about the Bills’ defense on third downs. “They did a great job rushing the passer. I missed some guys open on certain plays, and they did a good job of being in the zones that we wanted to throw it in.

“That's a good football team. I know they had some guys down, but they're coached very well. They play extremely hard, and they did a great job today.”

patrick mahome — Buffalo Bills defensive end Joey Bosa sacks Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes with linebacker Terrel Bernard coming in to help during first half action against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Nov. 2, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Line of demarcation

The Chiefs do a great job on third downs as long as the distance is 5 yards or less. That’s a clear line of demarcation.

On third-and-5 or less, the Chiefs convert at a 63.6-percent clip (35 of 55). But on third-and-6 or more, they’re just 12 of 58 (20.7 percent). Overall, the Chiefs are 47 of 113 on third downs, a 41.6-percent mark that ranks 10th in the NFL.

hollywood brow — Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford (47) brings down Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

“And when it is third and long,” Jason Kelce noted on New Heights, “it's already hard to pass block. And I mean, when you got guys like Joey Bosa and schematic things that I think Buffalo was doing a really good job of up front to create pressure, it just makes it hard.”

First-down success leads to shorter third downs

What creates third-and-long is obviously little-to-no production on first and second downs. The Chiefs, however, have performed at solid levels on those downs, especially first. Kansas City’s average yards to go on second down (7.37) is the fifth-lowest in the league.

On 54.4 percent of their first-down snaps, the Chiefs have gained at least 4 yards. That percentage ranks fourth in the NFL.

And according to analyst Ben Baldwin, the Chiefs are especially dangerous in turning first-and-10 into a new set of downs or points.

The rate at which each offense takes a 1st & 10 and earns a new set of downs (or scores)

The Kansas City Chiefs are still good pic.twitter.com/Qq6PwtcX7N
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 4, 2025

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