Why Chiefs Should Temper Expectations for 2026

For years, the Kansas City Chiefs have been penciled in as a lock to make the playoffs, but that was not the case in 2025. Kansas went 6-11 and did not participate in the postseason for the first time since 2014.

Patrick Mahomes suffering a torn ACL solidified the Chiefs' fate this past season, and it could potentially alter how 2026 unfolds for the team. The timing of the injury was a worst-case scenario for his availability for the start of next season, as it occurred at the tail end of 2025 in Week 15.

With all of that being said, here are reasons the Chiefs' expectations for next season should be tempered.

Kansas City Could be Without Star Quarterback

Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

As mentioned, Mahomes suffered a significant knee injury towards the end of last season, leaving his status for the start of next season in doubt. The 30-year-old quarterback has stated that his goal is to be ready for the first game of the season, but that could be a far-fetched aspiration.

You should never doubt Mahomes, but this injury typically takes nine months to fully recover from without limitations. If the nine-year veteran misses any significant time next season, the Chiefs are not going to compete for much.

Roster Turnover

Nov 27, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) forces a fumble from Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens (3) during the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Kansas City's dynastic run has featured consistent roster construction, but the bill for those Super Bowl runs has arrived. Heading into the offseason, the Chiefs sit $54.9 million over the cap with little leeway to manipulate the cap without restructuring contracts, which will create issues for Kansas City's future financial flexibility.

There will be significant changes to the roster, including the possibility of trading All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie. The 25-year-old defensive back is entering the final year of his rookie deal and holds a $13.6 million 2026 cap hit. He is a movable asset who would provide immense value on the trade market. The Chiefs could see a first-round pick in return for the 2022 first-round pick.

Limited Draft Capital

Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach talks to the media at the 2024 NFL Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

With several veterans potentially out the door and possessing only six picks in the upcoming draft, Kansas City's front office’s pathway to assembling a competitive roster is narrow. The Chiefs' recent track record in the last few drafts has not been stellar, causing worrisome concerns about the process this offseason.

Kansas City needs to get younger and cheaper quickly, and how they perform in the draft will be monumental toward that goal.

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