Expecting Chiefs-Bengals Part 2 to Be Close? You May Want to Think Again

A lot went the Bengals' way in Act I, so Act II might look quite a bit different.

There's been a lot of talk this week about why the Kansas City Chiefs' AFC Championship Game matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals could be a close game. There have even been rumblings that the contest could play out similarly to Kansas City's Divisional Round thriller against the Buffalo Bills — a game that featured historic comebacks and a combined 82 points.

Upon further review, that may not be the case.

Kansas City is favored by seven points against Cincinnati, a solid line considering the game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium. When factoring in that this same Bengals team defeated the Chiefs just under a month ago, it makes even more sense for the line to not get too out of hand. With that said, many things worked against the Chiefs in that first meetup. The Bengals were the beneficiaries of plenty of good fortune, and that luck simply may not be replicated in a playoff environment. 

The Chiefs had quite the first half in Cincinnati on Jan. 2, scoring points in bunches and getting after second-year quarterback Joe Burrow. On the other hand, Tyreek Hill had a dropped pass on a play that surely would have led to at least three more points being scored — if not seven. Byron Pringle had a kick return touchdown called back due to a hold. In the same game, Travis Kelce also dropped a pass in a key moment. On offense and special teams, the Chiefs shot themselves in the foot on multiple occasions. 

Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo's unit surrendered 266 receiving yards and a trio of touchdowns to rookie wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. It allowed Burrow to throw for 446 yards and four touchdowns on the day while completing 30 of 39 pass attempts. Missed tackles and blown coverages were commonplace on the Chiefs' behalf. A third-and-27 Spagnuolo decision to bring pressure on Burrow ended up partially costing the Chiefs the game. In addition to making self-inflicted mistakes in the other two phases of the game, defensive shortcomings also led to Kansas City's loss. 

Additionally, and this is always a touchy subject, there were several questionable calls (or no-calls) that went in Cincinnati's favor in Week 17. Part of that comes with the nature of having physical freaks such as Chase and Tee Higgins at wide receiver, but it's noteworthy nonetheless. With natural regression to the mean in regards to penalty luck, the Chiefs should have a better opportunity to win in the AFC Championship Game. On Sunday, a new opportunity presents itself to the Chiefs: an opportunity to get things right.

The Chiefs have played terrific football in the playoffs, blowing out the Pittsburgh Steelers before pulling off a seemingly insurmountable comeback just a week later against Buffalo. Offensively, they're firing on all cylinders. Patrick Mahomes is, somehow, tapping into yet another level of his game. His chemistry with Kelce and Hill is off the charts. The team's running game is evolving and becoming a legitimate threat. Going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in a scoring battle has always proved to be a difficult task, but doing so against this version of the offense is even harder. The Bengals have scored 26 and 19 points in their first two playoff games, and that won't cut it in Kansas City. They will need to not only put up close to or more than 30, but they'll also have to rely on a middle-of-the-pack defense to slow Mahomes and company down.

How the Chiefs played last time these two teams met is one thing. How the Chiefs are playing now is another. How likely is it that an Andy Reid and Mahomes-led offense scores three points in the second half of another game — let alone a game with these stakes — in the immediate future? Those odds are extremely low. How likely is it that the Chiefs commit game-changing errors on all three sides of the ball? That's also extremely far from a guarantee. When factoring in the expected return to normalcy in regards to officiating as well, it's easy to see how the 28-17 lead the Kansas City took into the halftime break of Chiefs-Bengals part one may be more telling than the 17-3 advantage Cincinnati had after the break. With most things being equal, especially in a home game, the Chiefs project to have a clear advantage.

The 2021-22 season has shown one thing, and it's that the Chiefs are prone to not playing their best football at times. The possibility that they accidentally construct their own roadblocks en route to their path to a third straight Super Bowl certainly exists. Since shaking off a slow start against the Steelers in the Wild-Card round, though, this version of the Chiefs seems to be sharp. With health rounding into shape, as well as many other elements likely finding balance, don't be too surprised if Kansas City hoists the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Sunday afternoon following a double-digit victory.