Empty Theory: Josh Downs is the Key to Short Passing Game
Indianapolis Colts' quarterback Anthony Richardson is young passer with sky high potential, but he needs to take a major step forward this next season in the short passing game. Luckily, Head Coach Shane Steichen could use empty personnel sets to make life easier for his new franchise passer.
In the previous post of this series, I dove into the mindset behind empty theory and how this personnel grouping gives a quarterback favorable pre-snap looks. Today, we are going to look at the most important player (besides the quarterback of course) for this style of offense; the quick-win wide receiver.
For the quick passing game to find success out of empty personnel, the offense needs a player that can create separation early in the play and win those isolated match-ups. The Philadelphia Eagles had the perfect playmaker for that role under Shane Steichen and, in my opinion, the Colts just drafted their own version of that player in the 2023 class.
Importance of the Quick-Win
Empty personnel is reliant on splitting the field and creating isolated match-ups for the offense to exploit. With that, the receiver that lines up as the weakside number two (or the slot receiver on the weakside of the field) has to be somebody that can successfully create yards in advantageous looks.
New England Patriots' Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien is one of the best minds in the entire industry when it comes to empty personnel. He has been a major voice when it comes to empty theory for years, and his offenses in Houston (Texans) and Alabama heavily relied on this personnel group.
Here is what O'Brien had to say about the importance of the weakside number two receiver for the offense:
Empty— as I said before— the ball is usually going to come out quick. So the number two weak player has to be a playmaker. He doesn’t have to be real fast, but he better be quick.
The main players of focus in empty are the weakside number two, the strongside three, and the strongside two. The two strongside players are typically working a route combination off of each other while the weakside two is isolated in a favorable spot.
Most of the time in empty, the weakside number two is the primary read.
The Philadelphia Eagles last season put one of their best overall players in this role to absolutely feast on opposing defenses.
DeVonta Smith as the Weakside Two
DeVonta Smith is a former Heisman Trophy winner that was selected by the Eagles with the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Smith has emerged as one of the NFL's best overall receivers, as his rare combination of quickness and route running prowess make him one of the best separators in the league.
Last season, Smith was the most important aspect of the Eagles' empty personnel looks. Whether a defense was running zone or man, Smith was able to create openings for his young quarterback to exploit out of this personnel grouping all year.
Let's look at some film examples.
In this first clip, Smith is isolated as the weakside two against a linebacker in man coverage. This is obviously what the offense wants when going into empty, as Smith is no match for any linebacker in that position.
Smith is running a lookie/glance route and his goal on the play is to stack the defender and cross the face for a quick outlet over the middle. He calmly creates separation with ease and gives the offense an easy nine yard gain on the play.
Similar design against a different defensive call on this next film example. Smith is still aligned as the weakside number two receiver, but this time he is being covered by a safety in zone coverage.
This is where the suddenness comes into play for a receiver like Smith, as he sells vertically up the field before using a speed out to work to the boundary. He creates that quick separation and, again, gives his quarterback an easy completion to the outside for a gain of seven.
This last film example is actually Smith's toughest isolated match-up thus far, as he is matched up with the Washington Commander's top cornerback in Benjamin St. Juste. The Commanders recognized the importance of limiting Smith on this play, so they adjusted accordingly.
This example is exactly why a team needs a pure separator in this spot. Smith is able to stack St. Juste on the option route and work off of the corner's leverage on the line. With St. Juste playing inside leverage, Smith is able to break outside and create separation near the sideline.
After making the catch, Smith turns back up the field for the score. The weakside two player has to be sudden, quick, and a true playmaker for empty personnel to work.
Josh Downs is the Key
Prior to the 2023 NFL Draft, the Colts really didn't have a quick-win receiver that could work as the weakside number two. A case could be made for Isaiah McKenzie, or maybe even Kylen Granson, but the team lacked a natural separator that could dominate in this spot.
This is exactly why the Josh Downs selection was so vital for this offensive scheme. In Downs, the Colts essentially have their version of a DeVonta Smith type. He is a sudden pass catcher that can be left on an island to dominate favorable match-ups.
Downs, obviously, has a ways to go to become the NFL player that DeVonta Smith currently is, but his mold is exactly what the Colts needed for empty personnel. He is going to feast on linebackers and safeties as the weakside two receiver in 2023, and I wouldn't be shocked if he led the team in receptions this year as a result.
The Bottom Line
Wide receiver Josh Downs is in line for a big season as a rookie if the Colts lean into empty personnel this year. He is the ultimate quick-win pass catcher that will provide an outlet for quarterback Anthony Richardson. With empty personnel giving him favorable match-ups in the slot, the sky is limit for this young pass catcher.
Make sure you guys continue to follow along this series as we move along this offseason. The next article in this series will dive into split field looks and the benefit of cutting the field in half.
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