Insider Says Colts and Daniel Jones '50/50' for Contract by Tag Deadline

The news dominating the Indianapolis Colts hasn't just been allowing Anthony Richardson Sr. to seek a trade, but also the contract talks with quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce.

In relation to this news, it's about Jones and the Colts trying to work out a deal before the franchise tag deadline tomorrow at 4 pm Eastern Standard Time.

NFL insider, Adam Schefter, updated everyone on The Pat McAfee Show that the Colts and Jones are '50/50' to get a deal done by that deadline, with the transition tag in play.

"I'm told it's 50/50 that they'll be able to get a deal with Daniel Jones by the deadline tomorrow. I think what's going to happen here is, either they get a deal done for Daniel Jones, or he winds up, I think, in my mind, with the transition tag. I think that's in play here, that's certainly an option."

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (blue and white uniform) gets ready to throw a pass down the field. — Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) looks to pass Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For those out of the know, a transition tag is defined by the NFL Football Operations website as the following:

"A player who receives the transition tag is free to negotiate with other teams. The player receives a one-year deal for the greater of: (a) the Cap Percentage Average of the top 10 greatest PYS at the player's position OR (b) 120 percent of his own PYS.

Should such a player sign an offer sheet with a new team, his former team has five days to match the offer sheet. The transition tag is a cheaper alternative to the franchise tag.

However, should his former team decide not to match, there is no draft-pick compensation tied to the transition tag. If a transition player has not signed an offer sheet with a new team by July 22, he can only negotiate and sign with his prior team that season."

In Layman's terms, if Indianapolis puts Jones on a transition tag, rather than the franchise tag, it's a $37,833,000 price point, and Jones can negotiate with other teams.

But the Colts have a chance to match an offer if Jones likes what the other team is willing to fork up.

This is also cheaper than the franchise tag ($43,895,000), but risks the Colts getting no compensation if the offer Jones receives is too high for Indianapolis to agree to.

@AdamSchefter saying it’s 50-50 the Colts sign Jones to a new contract by tomorrow’s deadline. If they can’t get it done, the transition tag may come into play
— Bob Kravitz (@bkravitz) March 2, 2026

Sign Up For the Colts Daily Digest - OnSI’s Indianapolis Colts Newsletter

Jones' 2025 season wasn't complete due to an Achilles injury during Week 14, but when he was on the field, he shone in a Colts uniform. It's also fair to say this is the best Jones we've ever seen in the NFL.

Jones finished with 13 games, 3,101 passing yards, a career-best 68.0 completion percentage, and 24 all-purpose touchdowns, with 19 coming through the air.

Some has speculated that there isn't a market for Jones after the Achilles injury, fractured fibula, and previous issues with injuries he's sustained throughout his seven years in the league.

This is simply not the case.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (blue and white uniform) warms up before the start of a game. — Dec 7, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) stands on the field prior to a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Teams like the Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, and Arizona Cardinals have QB issues that must be addressed, and Jones could be a logical answer.

Jones' market may not be as grandiose as Pierce's, but you can't win in the NFL without a solid (or better) quarterback under center, and plenty of teams understand this heading into 2026 free agency.

Also, the Colts have been nearly desperate in figuring out this quarterback issue they've had since 2019, and Jones was the first name to look like a long-term solution.

Indianapolis allowed Richardson to seek a trade and don't have their eyes on a name like Malik Willis, so expect a deal to get done with Jones somehow.

If the Colts can't get a deal figured out miraculously, the Colts will have no choice but to use a tag of some variety on the veteran signal-caller to make sure they work something out in the long run.